StanChart predicts Bitcoin’s new cycle may defy past patterns with ETF and policy tailwinds

Bitcoin (BTC) could see its strongest half-year performance ever in late 2025, driven by record ETF inflows, policy risks to the Federal Reserve, and broadening sovereign adoption, according to Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered.

In a July 2 research note, Kendrick forecasted that ETF inflows and corporate treasury purchases will exceed the second-quarter levels of 245,000 BTC in both the third and fourth quarters.

The lender maintained its earlier prediction of Bitcoin hitting $200,000 by year-end and updated its third quarter outlook for Bitcoin with a $135,000 price projection.

He added that Bitcoin ETF flows have already topped expectations, with the market starting to realise that the crypto’s post-halving price patterns remain intact despite earlier doubts.

Policy tailwinds and sovereign buying

Kendrick also highlighted that in addition to the buying surge, markets are facing rising risks to Federal Reserve independence as President Donald Trump could potentially replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell early, bringing a shift toward looser monetary policy.

According to Kendrick:

“ETF inflows and corporate treasury flows are all US policy-linked.”

Further boosting Bitcoin’s outlook is the passage of the GENIUS Act in the US, which recently secured Senate approval. Standard Chartered noted that such legislation would enhance regulatory clarity, facilitate broader adoption, and integrate crypto further into the traditional financial system.

Kendrick also predicted broadening sovereign adoption of Bitcoin and said that any evidence of national-level buying would support long-term demand and price stability, similar to the impact seen from corporate treasury accumulation in recent months.

Halving cycle theory is over

The note also addressed market worries about Bitcoin’s halving cycle, a scheduled event every four years that cuts mining rewards in half and historically influences price patterns.

Kendrick explained that in previous cycles, Bitcoin prices have fallen about 18 months after a halving, which would imply potential declines around September or October of this year based on the April 2024 halving.

However, Standard Chartered believes that the dynamic has changed. Kendrick wrote that thanks to strong ETF inflows and corporate treasury buying, factors that were absent in earlier cycles, Bitcoin may avoid the typical post-halving decline.

He said price is likely to be volatile in late September and early October as markets focus on this historical pattern, but forecasted that the uptrend will resume at year-end, driven by these new structural demand factors.

Kendrick concluded that the coming months will demonstrate how Bitcoin has moved beyond its previous halving cycle behaviour, summarising his outlook simply:

“Buckle up.”

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