Bitcoin is holding at $117,761, up 8% this week, while the US dollar is looking tired. The WSJ Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar against major currencies, closed at 94.73, just above recent lows and down 10.4% from its 2022 high.
The dollar’s weakness is driving capital into digital assets as investors seek alternatives to traditional stores of value.
The technicals are strong. Bitcoin has broken out of a symmetrical triangle and cleared the 0.382 and 0.5 Fibonacci retracement levels.
Price is consolidating above $116,951—a key support zone. The 50-period SMA on the 4-hour chart is at $110,527 below and supporting the trend.
Momentum indicators back the bull case. The RSI is at 75.5—overbought but not diverging—so until a bearish candle or volume drop shows up, the path of least resistance is up.
#Bitcoin holds firm above $117K after breakout.
RSI at 75 shows strong momentum
0.5 Fib ($116,951) acting as key support
50-SMA rising at $110,527
Potential Targets: $121.3K, $124.6K, $127.6K
Watch for Doji/spinning top near resistance#BTC #Crypto #TradingView pic.twitter.com/UscsoGCIDz
— Arslan Ali (@forex_arslan) July 12, 2025
Macro Forces Align: Fed Uncertainty, ETF Hopes
The Fed is deeply divided on rates, and the dollar is in limbo. Some want to wait, others see inflation risks that require more tightening. Markets are pricing in a 50% chance of a July rate cut—a coin flip that keeps traders on edge.
In crypto, the picture is clearer. ETF hopes are building despite the SEC delaying Grayscale’s Digital Large Cap ETF. Analysts think more crypto ETFs are coming as institutions start to treat Bitcoin like digital gold. This narrative makes BTC a better hedge against rate changes and geopolitical risk.
Meanwhile, Peter Schiff is telling everyone to sell Bitcoin for silver and the market is ignoring him. BTC is up 6% after his warning and many are citing institutional inflows and strong technicals as reasons to stay long.
Trade Setup and Risks to Watch
Bitcoin price prediction remains bullish, therefore, for a continuation trade, here’s a setup:
- Entry: Pullback to $116,950 (0.5 Fib)
- Stop-Loss: Below $112,500 (0.382)
- Targets: $121,378 (0.618), $124,682, $127,681
This is a Fibonacci confluence and trend play. Look for reversal signs—spinning top or Doji—at resistance levels. But risks remain. The July 12 Fed minutes could be volatile if the tone turns hawkish. And the US government’s tariff policies—especially towards BRICS countries like South Africa—will impact global risk sentiment and crypto indirectly.
Conclusion:
Bitcoin’s technical breakout, a weak dollar, and growing ETF hopes mean more upside could be ahead. Whether BTC gets to $300,000 this year is a confluence of events—Fed policy, institutional adoption, and macro volatility. But for now, bulls are in control.
Bitcoin Hyper Presale Over $2M as Price Rise Nears
Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER), the first Bitcoin-native Layer 2 powered by the Solana Virtual Machine (SVM), has raised over $2 million in its public presale, with $2,511,140 out of a $2,846,221 target. The token is priced at $0.012225, with the next price tier expected to be announced soon.
Designed to merge Bitcoin’s security with Solana’s speed, Bitcoin Hyper enables fast, low-cost smart contracts, dApps, and meme coin creation, all with seamless BTC bridging. The project is audited by Consult and engineered for scalability, trust, and simplicity.
The golden cross of meme appeal and real utility has made Bitcoin Hyper a Layer 2 contender to watch in 2025. With staking, a streamlined presale, and a full rollout expected by Q1, $HYPER is gaining serious traction.
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