Is a $10K ETH Christmas rally now base-case? As Ethereum ETFs pull in $4 Billion in 2 weeks

Spot Ethereum ETFs have drawn more than $4 billion in net inflows over a two-week streak ending Tuesday, including $533.9 million added yesterday alone.

That run pushed total assets across all eight U.S. funds to $19.85 billion, per SoSoValue. The streak began on July 3 and has yet to break, placing Ethereum far ahead in proportional supply absorption.

BlackRock’s ETHA product led the surge, capturing $426.2 million on Tuesday and managing $9.26 billion in AUM. The inflow pace follows an earlier single-day record of $726.7 million logged on July 16. Ethereum ETF assets now represent over 4% of the asset’s total circulating supply, a level reached in just under three weeks of live trading.

Bitcoin ETFs, by comparison, saw $67.9 million in outflows on the same day, continuing a two-week reversal of flows between the two assets. Per CoinShares, ETH products gathered $990 million over the week ending July 14, equal to around 20% of their existing assets. That relative growth outpaced Bitcoin’s $2.7 billion intake, which accounted for 9.8% of its ETF base.

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan estimates that demand from Ethereum ETFs and institutional balance sheets could amount to $20 billion over the next year, equating to more than 5.3 million ETH. With post-Merge issuance projected at just 0.8 million ETH annually, Hougan describes a potential seven-to-one imbalance between buyers and available new coins. The shift arrives as ETH’s net inflation rate remains relatively flat, with staking and long-term custody constraining secondary market supply.

Derivatives markets appear to be adjusting to the same direction. On Deribit, $4,000 and $6,000 call options held more than $931 million in combined open interest. Data also shows that Dec-26-25 $10k calls command $120 million in open interest, up 60 % in July and ranking fifth among ETH strikes.

At a mid-market premium, the contract prices a roughly 15 % probability that ether tops $10,000 by Christmas, lofty but not implausible given ETF flows already soaking up six months of issuance.

Ethereum has logged a six-month gain of roughly 180% twice since 2020. The latest stretch ran from April to October 2021, so the market-implied 15% chance is not without precedent.

A favorable SEC ruling on in-fund staking, a turn toward easier Federal Reserve policy, and the pending EIP-7702 fee-burn could each add incremental fuel to that trajectory.

BlackRock’s lead in Ethereum ETF assets also mirrors its grip on Bitcoin ETFs through IBIT, which continues to dominate that segment. ETHA alone holds over half of all Ethereum ETF assets, raising questions about provider concentration, especially if staking approval is granted.

As of now, the SEC has not officially ruled on whether in-fund ETH staking will be permitted, but signs are promising, and that would affect yield-seeking institutional demand.

While flows remain substantial, risks tied to regulatory delays and macroeconomic tightening linger. ETF demand outpacing supply is now the base case according to fund managers, but broader risk sentiment could still derail short-term momentum. For now, derivatives desks are pricing in the next leg higher.

For now, ETF flows and options positioning both align on the same upward trajectory, but $10,000 remains possible rather than probable.

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