Analyst Says Bitcoin Dominance Breakdown Could Signal Incoming Altcoin Season

Bitcoin’s market dominance is showing signs of weakness, which could mean altcoin season is closer than many traders think, according to crypto analyst Matthew Hyland.

Key Takeaways:

• Bitcoin’s dominance is weakening, dropping over 5% since May, paving the way for an upcoming altcoin season.
• Analyst Matthew Hyland believes Bitcoin’s recent volatility may be influenced by Wall Street manipulation.
• Altcoin season remains elusive for now, with CoinMarketCap’s index still deep in “Bitcoin Season” territory.

“The reason why you should have confidence in the altcoin price action is because the BTC Dominance chart looks bearish and has looked bearish for many weeks,” Hyland said in a post on X on Friday.

“The downtrend is favorable to continue; therefore, this relief rally has been a dead cat bounce in a downtrend,” he added.

Analyst Claims Wall Street May Be Behind Recent Bitcoin Volatility

Hyland also suggested that Bitcoin’s recent volatility might not be entirely organic. In a video shared Saturday, he argued that Wall Street institutions could be behind the market swings.

“Over the past month, I’ve kind of just maintained the view that a lot of this was really just manipulation, essentially for Wall Street to set themselves up,” he said.

Bitcoin’s dominance, the share of total crypto market capitalization held by BTC, has dropped 5.13% since May and now sits at 59.90%, according to TradingView data.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency recently slipped below $100,000 for the first time in four months before recovering to $102,090 at press time, per CoinMarketCap.

Despite the modest rebound, Bitcoin has fallen 15.6% over the past 30 days, keeping sentiment subdued across the broader market.

CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index currently stands at 28 out of 100, well within “Bitcoin Season” territory, signaling that capital is still concentrated around BTC.

The last time the index flipped into “Altcoin Season” was on Oct. 8, shortly after Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $125,100.

However, the optimism faded quickly following the Oct. 10 crash, which erased $19 billion in leveraged positions and sparked a shift toward safer assets.

Some analysts believe the next altcoin season will look very different from the euphoric runs of 2017 and 2021.

For now, traders are watching closely to see whether Bitcoin’s dominance continues to fall, a trend that could set the stage for a long-awaited, but more selective, altcoin rally.

JPMorgan Predicts Bitcoin Could Hit $170K Within a Year

JPMorgan analysts expect Bitcoin to climb to around $170,000 within six to twelve months, citing the completion of the perpetual futures deleveraging phase and improved volatility dynamics relative to gold.

The bank’s strategists, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, noted that Bitcoin markets have largely stabilized following the October 10 liquidation event, the largest in crypto history, and a smaller wave triggered by the $128 million Balancer exploit.

In their Wednesday note, analysts said open interest in Bitcoin perpetual futures has returned to historical norms, signaling the end of excess leverage.

“The message from the recent stabilization is that deleveraging in perpetual futures is likely behind us,” the team wrote, adding that ETF redemptions remain modest compared to prior inflows.

They identified perpetual futures as the key gauge of crypto market health rather than traditional futures or ETF activity.

JPMorgan’s bullish projection is also based on Bitcoin’s improving volatility ratio against gold, which has fallen below 2.0.

The bank calculated that to align with private-sector gold investments, valued at about $6.2 trillion, Bitcoin’s market cap would need to rise roughly 67%, implying a fair value near $170,000.

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