Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange inflows have dropped to a 1-year low, indicating reduced selling pressure and investor reluctance to exit positions ahead of a potential U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut.
Meanwhile, stablecoin deposits, particularly USDT, have risen sharply, showing that investors are building dry powder for potential buying opportunities following the Fed’s announcement, according to the latest CryptoQuant Market insight.
On-chain data reveals that exchange inflows have fallen to a 7-day moving average of 25K BTC, the lowest level in over a year, and down substantially from 51K BTC in July.
Markets await Fed cuts.
BTC inflows hit 25K, a 1-year low, with avg. deposit size halved since July.
USDT deposits climb while altcoin inflows signal rotation. pic.twitter.com/dhDLFXeYwV— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) September 16, 2025
Bitcoin & Ethereum Inflows Crash 50% As Largest Holders Stop Selling
The average BTC deposit per transaction has also halved from 1.14 BTC in mid-July to 0.57 BTC in September, indicating reduced sell pressure from larger holders.
Ethereum inflows into exchanges mirror this trend, sitting at a two-month low with the 7-day average down to 783K ETH, from 1.8 million ETH on August 15.
The average ETH deposit size has similarly declined from 40–45 ETH per transaction at previous peaks to just 30 ETH today, reflecting the same low sell-side activity observed in BTC.
Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, noted that stablecoin net deposits, particularly for USDT, have surged, reaching $379 million on August 31, the highest level year-to-date.
He describes this rising inflow as growing “dry powder” that investors are accumulating to deploy into the crypto market, particularly Bitcoin, if the expected 25bps rate cut materializes today.
Moreno also revealed that the Bitcoin Bull Score has shifted from “bearish” to “neutral” ahead of the Fed meeting.
The index has climbed from 20 to 50 over the past four days.
Two weeks ago, Bitcoin hit a low of around $108,000; since then, it has recovered to $115,000.
One key factor in this recovery is the movement of coins to and from exchanges.
As a basic principle, outflows signal buying pressure (coins leaving exchanges), while inflows indicate selling pressure (coins moving onto exchanges).
Over the past nine days, Binance has recorded only outflows.
This trend appears to be a major catalyst behind Bitcoin’s recent bounce from $108k to $116k.
The pattern is coming at a crucial time, given that the FOMC meeting occurs today.
Most analysts, including BitMEX Co-founder Arthur Hayes, expect the Fed to cut rates, with prediction markets like Polymarket showing a 91% probability of a rate cut.
With Fed board member Miran now confirmed, the MSM is preparing the world for the Fed's "third mandate" which is essentially yield curve control. LFG!
YCC -> $BTC = $1m pic.twitter.com/jlPQZJ0cHm— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) September 16, 2025
The consistent outflows from Binance also reflect investors’ early positioning ahead of this event, which is fueling the bull case for Bitcoin to finally break the $120k psychological resistance.
BTC is now posting its best September performance in 13 years.
Historically, whenever Bitcoin has closed September in green, October and November have been extremely bullish, with an average combined gain of 35%.
Technical Analysis: Bitcoin Lower Channel Breakout Targets $128K-$132K
Crypto analyst Rekt Capital shared that Bitcoin needs just one daily close and successful post-reclaim retest of ~$117,200 to confirm a return into the blue daily range at $120k and resume another leg of the bull run.
#BTC
Bitcoin just needs one Daily Close and successful post-reclaim retest of ~$117200 (green circle) to confirm a return into this blue-blue Daily range$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/ycGcDcdrCK— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) September 16, 2025
On the technical front, the Bitcoin daily chart shows several key patterns converging to suggest a bullish outlook.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $116,465, positioned within a well-defined ascending channel that has guided price action since May.
The chart shows Bitcoin has successfully tested and held the lower boundary of this channel multiple times, demonstrating strong institutional support around the $108,000-$111,000 zone.
After hitting resistance near the first resistance target around $125,000 in August, Bitcoin consolidated and pulled back to retest support, typical healthy price action in a bull market.
The recent bounce from the channel’s lower boundary suggests this pullback may be complete.
The upper channel boundary points toward the $128,000-$132,000 area, matching the marked “Next target” on the chart.
This target zone represents a logical extension of the current bull trend and suggests Bitcoin could see a 12-15% rally from current levels if it can break through the initial resistance cluster.
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