Bitcoin Price Prediction: U.S. PPI Falls 0.1% as BTC Holds $113K Triangle Breakout

Bitcoin is trading at $113,884, with daily volumes exceeding $56.3 billion, representing a 2.25% increase over the last 24 hours. The move comes amid a softer macroeconomic backdrop following the unexpected decline in U.S. producer prices in August.

The core Producer Price Index (PPI), which excludes food and energy, dropped 0.1% month-over-month—far below forecasts of a 0.3% rise. Annual core inflation eased to 2.8% from July’s revised 3.4%.

For Bitcoin, the weaker wholesale inflation data is fueling hopes of a more accommodative Federal Reserve, while traders keep one eye on the charts for confirmation of a breakout.

PPI Surprise and Market Reaction

The August PPI release was the first decline in four months, surprising economists who had expected another increase. Headline PPI fell 0.1% month-over-month, compared to July’s upwardly revised 0.7%. On a yearly basis, wholesale inflation cooled to 2.6% from 3.1%.

The details underscore the slowdown. Final demand prices for services dropped 0.2% after climbing 0.7% in July, while goods prices edged up only 0.1% compared to last month’s 0.6%. The core PPI for finished goods held at 2.8%, its highest level since late 2023.

The softer data eases pressure on the Fed, with markets now leaning toward a more dovish stance in September. For risk assets like Bitcoin, that backdrop is supportive, particularly as inflationary shocks fade.

Key points from the PPI release:

• Headline PPI fell 0.1% in August vs. +0.3% expected
• Annual PPI slowed to 2.6% from 3.1% in July
• Core PPI slipped to 2.8%, its lowest since early 2024

Regulatory and Global Shifts

Macro data wasn’t the only driver this week. In the U.S., Cboe announced it will launch 10-year Bitcoin and Ethereum futures pending approval. Known as “continuous futures,” these products mimic perpetual swaps commonly found in offshore markets, but are subject to U.S. regulatory oversight.

They’ll allow institutions to maintain long-dated exposure without constant rollovers, a structural change likely to boost participation.

Elsewhere, Kyrgyzstan advanced a bill to create a state-backed crypto reserve and launch national mining operations. The proposal would diversify state holdings through tokenization, stablecoins, and direct Bitcoin accumulation.

Meanwhile, U.S. SEC Chair Paul Atkins unveiled “Project Crypto” in Paris, signaling a shift from strict enforcement toward clear rules. Atkins emphasized that most tokens should not be classified as securities, echoing Europe’s MiCA framework.

Together, these developments underscore a steady institutionalization of cryptocurrency: the expansion of U.S. futures, state-level adoption abroad, and regulatory clarity at home. All are tailwinds for Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory.

Technical Outlook for Bitcoin

On the charts, Bitcoin is consolidating just beneath a breakout level at $113,800. The two-hour chart displays an ascending triangle pattern, characterized by higher lows that press against flat resistance.

The 50-period SMA at $111,896 is trending upward, while the 200-period SMA at $112,738 sits directly below price action, reinforcing support.

The Relative Strength Index holds near 64, reflecting strong but not overheated momentum. Back-to-back bullish candlesticks further confirm buyers remain in control. If Bitcoin can close above $113,800, the path on TradingView projects upside toward $115,400, then $117,150, and $118,617. A sustained breakout could lift BTC toward $125,000 in the medium term.

Failure to hold above $112,000 would weaken the bullish case, with risks of a slide back to $111,000, $110,000, and $108,450. Bearish candlestick sequences like an engulfing pattern or three black crows at resistance would confirm such a reversal.

For traders, the setup is clear: longs are favored on confirmation above $113,800 with stops under $111,000, targeting $117K to $125K. With macro data softening, institutional products expanding, and adoption broadening globally, Bitcoin’s current triangle may be less about short-term noise and more about laying the groundwork for its next major rally. If momentum aligns with these structural shifts, BTC’s march toward $130,000 could come sooner than many expect.

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