Bitwise CIO Bets on Bitcoin Rally in 2026, Defying 4-Year Cycle

Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan believes Bitcoin could break from its historical four-year cycle and post significant gains in 2026 — a call that diverges from mainstream expectations of a cycle peak later this year.

Key Takeaways:

• Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan predicts Bitcoin could see major gains in 2026, breaking from its historic four-year cycle.
• He cites reduced halving impact, improving regulation, and institutional adoption as drivers of long-term momentum.
• Hougan warns that Bitcoin treasury firms could pose risks if overleveraged during market downturns.

“I bet 2026 is an up year,” Hougan said in a video shared on X, adding, “I broadly think we’re in for a good few years.”

His remarks come as debate intensifies over whether the classic Bitcoin halving-driven model still holds.

Hougan Says Bitcoin Halving Cycle Losing Its Influence

According to Hougan, several factors are now overriding the influence of the halving cycle. He argued the impact of halvings weakens over time, as each one cuts rewards by a smaller absolute amount.

He also pointed to the broader macro environment, where U.S. presidential frontrunner Donald Trump is pressuring the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, a move that could drive capital away from bonds and toward risk assets like Bitcoin.

“Blow-up risk is attenuated, due to improving regulation and the institutionalization of the space,” Hougan said, noting that clearer rules and expanding institutional involvement have reduced the likelihood of market shocks.

He added that ongoing adoption by traditional firms could extend Bitcoin’s bullish momentum well beyond historical timelines.

However, Hougan also flagged risks. He pointed to the rise of Bitcoin treasury companies — firms that buy BTC using debt or equity issuance — as a potential vulnerability.

Asset manager VanEck has echoed similar concerns, warning that such companies could be overleveraged if the market turns.

Despite those caveats, Hougan expects a more measured advance ahead. “I think it’s more ‘sustained steady boom’ than super-cycle,” he said, though he acknowledged the path forward will still include volatility.

Bitcoin is currently trading around $118,169, having climbed over 10% in the past month, according to Nansen.

Hougan’s view aligns with recent commentary from CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, who declared the four-year cycle “dead,” citing a shift in whale behavior.

“Old whales sell to new long-term whales. Institutional adoption is bigger than we thought,” Ju noted.

Bitcoin Could Peak in October If 2020 Cycle Repeats, Says Analyst

However, not everyone agrees. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital recently warned that if Bitcoin mirrors its 2020 cycle, the market could peak in October, 550 days after the April 2024 halving.

That would keep Bitcoin firmly within its historic rhythm, suggesting the debate over its future trajectory is far from settled.

Bitcoin’s strong performance and growing reputation as a store of value have led analyst Tom Lee to call it “Digital Gold,” with a bold long-term price forecast of $1 million.

Speaking on CNBC, Lee emphasized Bitcoin’s role as an emerging asset class that could challenge gold’s dominance.

He also pointed to recent regulatory progress, such as the approval of the GENIUS Act, as a positive sign for the crypto sector.

Lee believes a $200K–$250K Bitcoin price is achievable, representing just a fraction of gold’s market value.

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