Ethereum Price Prediction: $536M BTC ETF Outflows Trigger ETH Liquidity Test – Can $3,800 Support Hold? 

Ethereum is attempting to steady above $3,984, even as major spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $536 million in net outflows on October 16, one of the heaviest single-day withdrawals since mid-2025. The sell-off marked a shift in institutional sentiment, briefly pulling liquidity from both BTC and ETH markets.

According to the data shared by Wu Blockchain, none of the twelve Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows on that day. On the other hand, spot Ethereum ETFs suffered $56.88 million in outflows, though BlackRock’s ETHA did post some modest net inflows.

This divergence between the two highlights the mixed appetite for digital asset exposure, as traders weigh the pros and cons of jumping in during the current volatility against playing it long term and holding on through both the bad and good times.

Market watchers are warning that if these ETF outflows continue, especially if they are large, liquidity in the crypto markets might get tight. And that would be bad news. On the other hand, ETH’s ability to stay above its key support levels is a good sign that holders still have faith in the coin and aren’t panicking yet.

Ethereum Defends Key Support Zone

Despite ETF-driven pressure, Ethereum continues to respect its $3,930–$3,950 support band, which has acted as a strong defense since early October. The price recently broke out of a symmetrical triangle, a consolidation pattern that often precedes directional moves.

A decisive candle close above both the 50-EMA and 200-EMA confirms renewed bullish momentum. The breakout candle also formed a bullish engulfing pattern, signaling that buying strength is overcoming prior weakness.

Meanwhile, the RSI reading at 68 indicates a healthy recovery without tipping into overbought conditions, leaving room for further upside. The series of higher lows on the two-hour chart reinforces ETH’s underlying bullish structure, showing accumulation from technical buyers.

Ethereum Technical Outlook: Path Toward $4,300

If Ethereum manages to stay above $3,930, the next significant level of resistance comes in around $4,093. From there, it might make another run toward $4,299. If it breaks that level, it could trigger a retest of $4,554 and complete a full measurement of the recent consolidation range.

But, if it fails to hold, ETH could end up sliding down to $3,713 or even $3,510 if the market downside really gets going.

Key Levels to Watch:

• Support: $3,930 / $3,713 / $3,510
• Resistance: $4,093 / $4,299 / $4,554

Trade Setup and Outlook

For anyone trying to pick up a quick profit, a long trade above $3,950 with a stop-loss at $3,710 looks like a pretty good bet – and the upside targets are between $4,299 and $4,554 if the momentum keeps going.

Looking ahead, Ethereum’s ability to hold its ground while the ETFs are getting drained of cash may determine where the crypto market goes next. If $3,800 can hold firm, ETH could regain its lead among altcoins as capital rotation picks up and market sentiment shifts towards recovery.

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