Fed Cuts Rates to 4.25% — Will Bitcoin Rally or Crash Before Weekend?

The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point, lowering the upper bound of its federal funds rate to 4.25%.

The decision, which brings rates to their lowest level since November 2022, was widely expected by markets after weeks of weakening labor data and softer inflation readings.

FOMC Trims Target Range by 25 bps, Citing Softer Jobs and Elevated Risks

The move trims the target range from 4.50% to 4.25%, marking the Fed’s first rate cut since earlier this year.

Chair Jerome Powell and 10 other members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) backed the move, while one dissenting voice, Stephen I. Miran, favored a larger half-point reduction.

Fed officials cited slowing economic growth, softer job gains, and rising downside risks to employment as key factors behind the decision.

“The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run,” the FOMC said in its statement, adding that uncertainty about the outlook “remains elevated.”

Labor market data has increasingly pointed to strain. Revisions released this week showed the economy created 911,000 fewer jobs in the year through March than initially reported.

The August report showed job growth nearly stalling, with June recording the first monthly losses in over four years. Unemployment rose to 4.3% in August, the highest level since 2021.

Powell has previously described the labor market as facing “downside risks” that could intensify if layoffs increase.

At the same time, inflation has eased compared to earlier in the year but remains above the Fed’s 2% target. Wholesale inflation unexpectedly declined in August, with the Producer Price Index slipping 0.1% after a 0.7% rise in July.

On an annual basis, PPI rose 2.6%, far below the 3.3% expected by economists. The weaker-than-forecast print reinforced expectations that the Fed would cut rates this week, sending Bitcoin higher in the days leading up to the decision as traders bet on looser monetary policy.

Political pressure has also loomed large over the Fed. President Donald Trump has repeatedly called for deeper cuts, accusing Powell of moving “too late” and demanding aggressive easing to support housing and reduce government financing costs.

On social media, Trump dismissed the Fed chair as “a total disaster” and pressed for bigger reductions. Miran, a Trump appointee, aligned with this position, voting for a half-point cut.

The decision comes against a backdrop of tariffs that have pushed inflation higher in recent months. Consumer prices climbed to 2.9% in August after dipping to 2.3% in April.

Economists remain divided on whether tariff-driven increases will prove temporary or more lasting. Some warn that the combination of higher prices and rising unemployment could trigger stagflation, a scenario the Fed is attempting to avoid by balancing growth with price stability.

Despite political drama surrounding the meeting, Fed officials projected slightly faster economic growth than previously estimated while leaving unemployment and inflation forecasts unchanged.

Their long-term outlook signals a gradual path toward a neutral rate of around 3%, with additional cuts penciled in for 2026 and 2027

For crypto markets, the implications remain uncertain. Bitcoin and Ether have historically rallied on signs of easier monetary policy, but rising political tension and lingering inflation risks could temper gains.

Traders are watching Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET for further guidance on the Fed’s next moves.

$105M Liquidated in Crypto After Powell Press Conference as Bitcoin Slides

More than $105 million was liquidated across crypto markets within an hour following Powell’s press conference on Thursday, with longs accounting for $88.8 million and shorts $17 million.

The sudden volatility dragged the global crypto market cap down 0.9% to $4.08 trillion. Bitcoin fell 1.2% in the past 24 hours to trade around $115,089, slipping 0.8% in the last hour. The asset now sits 7% below its record high of $124,128.

Earlier in the day, BTC had climbed above $117,000, its highest in four weeks, before Powell’s comments unsettled markets. Analysts warned of large liquidity clusters between $108,000 and $112,000, highlighting the risk of deeper corrections if sentiment turns hawkish.

Despite September’s strong performance, Bitcoin is up 8%, its best September since 2012; traders are now watching the $115,800 support level.

Technical analysts note the formation of a rising wedge, a bearish reversal pattern, with downside targets at $114,400 and $113,200 if support breaks.

“Momentum is fading,” said analyst Arslan Ali, pointing to an RSI reading below 50. “If $115.8K holds and BTC reclaims $117.3K, the path opens toward $130K in the coming months. But a breakdown could extend losses to $113K.”

The market remains at a critical juncture. With Powell’s tone weighing on risk assets, traders face a weekend of uncertainty as Bitcoin tests whether bulls can defend key levels or risk a sharper retracement.

Bitcoin Charts Show Battle Between $126K Target and $110K Risk Zone After Fed Rate Cuts

Bitcoin’s recent price action shows conflicting technical signals, with analysts pointing to both bullish and bearish scenarios.

After breaking out of a falling wedge in early September, BTC moved into an ascending channel, suggesting renewed bullish momentum.

Price is currently trading above major moving averages, with projections eyeing a push toward $126,000 if support levels hold. Key support sits around $115,000 and $113,000, while $110,000 marks the invalidation zone that could flip momentum back in favor of sellers.

However, the shorter-term outlook has weakened. On the two-hour chart, Bitcoin recently broke down from a rising wedge pattern, a bearish reversal signal.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped to 43, showing fading momentum without yet reaching oversold territory. Analysts note that $115,800 remains a crucial battle line.

Losing this level could trigger a slide toward $114,400 and potentially $113,200, where the 200 SMA offers stronger support.

To regain control, BTC would need to reclaim $117,300 and push through resistance at $118,500–$119,000.

Until then, the setup leans bearish in the short term, with the market closely watching whether buyers can defend support or risk a deeper retracement.

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