How Polymarket, Kalshi and Other Prediction Markets Win as Crypto Falls

Prediction markets are quickly becoming a visible part of the crypto landscape. They do not look like traditional trading or staking. Users place bets directly from their crypto wallets, and if their prediction is correct, they make a profit. Market corrections do not affect this logic.

Betting and trying to profit from predictions have existed for centuries. Everyone knows sports betting. What is interesting now is that many elements of the physical world are moving into crypto, especially ideas from the past. NFTs tried to revive interest through plush toys, while collectibles like Pokemon cards are being tokenized. So, prediction markets turn out to be another familiar concept brought back into crypto.

People already understand how these concepts work. Crypto simply adds another layer. Some compare prediction markets to meme coins before their major boom. There is significant growth potential here, and the same level of risk for users. For now, prediction markets remain early. According to DeFiLlama, total value locked (TVL) stands at roughly $337 million.

Whether this sector expands into a multi-billion-dollar market or ends up as a short-lived narrative remains to be seen. For now, activity is rising and more users are placing bets.

‘Prediction Markets Will Eat All of Finance’

Even though the space is still in its early phase, competition is already intense. The best-known platform is Polymarket, which is preparing to launch its POLY token and expand into the U.S. market. It also dominates TVL, holding $248 million out of $337 million. Other notable players include Opinion, Kalshi, Myriad, and Limitless.

Kalshi is usually considered Polymarket’s main competitor. But the recent launch of Opinion reshaped the leaderboard. In several metrics, both Kalshi and Opinion already outperform Polymarket.

According to Dune data, notional volume across prediction markets began accelerating this autumn. The trend started shortly after Opinion went live. Previously, Polymarket and Kalshi often competed for first place, but now a new contender has emerged. Until late summer 2025, Polymarket held a near-monopoly.

As of Nov. 19, Opinion leads with $1.5 billion in trading volume, followed by Kalshi with $1.2 billion, Polymarket with $952 million, and smaller platforms behind them. Total volume stands at roughly $3.7 billion.

Prediction markets broadly fall into two categories: sports and non-sports (politics, finance, crypto). Polymarket, Opinion, and Kalshi belong to the non-sports segment. Back in 2024, Polymarket became the leader not only in its own category but overall, surpassing major sports-betting networks like Azuro.

Kalshi CEO John Wang believes the sector has significant long-term potential.

High Win Rates and Insider Signals

One possible reason for the growing attention this autumn is that users can still make a profit here, even while the broader crypto market is falling. Most bets are placed in stablecoins, and outcomes depend solely on whether a prediction turns out correct. The rest of the market does not influence the result.

While crypto traders watch red charts, prediction markets have participants who consistently earn. Whether these are insiders or simply skilled forecasters is unclear, but the numbers stand out.

On Polymarket, a user known as 033033033, active since November 2024, shows an almost perfect win rate and has earned roughly $84,000.

Another example shows this even better. A well-known participant associated with MetaDAO earned around $560,000 on Polymarket. They were mostly inactive for a year, then opened several positions one day before the end of Solomon’s public sale. All bets were placed in one direction, with entry prices just a few cents. Roughly $30,000 turned into more than half a million. It may look like luck, but on-chain data suggests otherwise. In November 2024, the same wallet made a small, intentionally losing bet, possibly to avoid drawing attention.

How Traders Use Polymarket, Opinion, and Kalshi Today

Two core strategies are emerging. The first revolves around specific events and cases like Solomon. In these situations, users monitor large wallets and accounts they believe may have insider knowledge.

The second strategy is simpler. Many traders rely on their own views and participate in markets, such as whether Bitcoin will fall below $100,000 or whether the Fed will change rates.

Point systems also matter. Several platforms introduced activity rewards, creating an additional incentive for traders expecting future token distributions.

Prediction markets are becoming a new crypto narrative, and interest continues rising. The confirmed Polymarket airdrop adds even more attention and could bring the sector to a new level.

But risks remain. The biggest limitation is the small size of individual markets. This can lead to slippage and moments when the order book is effectively empty, especially for large bets. Another factor is participant behavior. Some accounts believed to be insiders may place large positions that create misleading signals for others, especially when using multiple wallets or making contradictory bets.

Prediction markets continue to grow as volumes rise and users find ways to profit even in a falling crypto market. But the space is still early and comes with clear limitations. Liquidity varies, questions around insider-like behavior remain, and competition between platforms is only getting stronger. What happens next will depend on demand, regulation, and whether these platforms can scale without losing trust.

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