A surprisingly strong U.S. jobs report thrusted financial markets this week, sending the dollar flying while Bitcoin tumbled below $111,000.
Initial jobless claims dropped by 14,000 to 218,000 in the third week of September, marking a two-month low, while Q2 GDP growth was revised upward to 3.8% from 3.3%.
The upbeat economic data lifted the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) to a three-week high, rising 0.3% on the day, but weighed heavily on risk assets, with Bitcoin now testing support near $111,000.
Dollar popped on the strong data$DXY +0.3% pic.twitter.com/6l36h1QJA0
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT
(@MikeZaccardi) September 25, 2025
Economic Strength Slashes Rate Cut Odds as Bitcoin Falls Below $111K
Bloomberg Terminal data show that the fresh economic data weakens the case for rapid Fed cuts. After last week’s 25-bp cut, Fed Governor Miran pushed for faster easing, but Powell urged caution.
Odds of an October rate cut have now gone down to 85.5% from 92%, according to data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
Glassnode market insights also revealed that Bitcoin is showing signs of exhaustion. ETF inflows, once a key absorber of Bitcoin supply, slowed sharply around the FOMC meeting, and long-term holder distribution accelerated, creating a fragile balance in flows.
This weakness extends to spot and futures markets, suggesting increasing exhaustion. With short-term holders’ $111K cost basis now serving as key support, this level must hold to prevent further downside.
Additionally, BTC has slipped below the 0.95 Cost Basis Quantile, a key risk band that often marks profit-taking zones.
Reclaiming it would indicate renewed strength, but failure to do so risks a drift toward lower support levels around $105K–$90K.
In addition, geopolitical uncertainty over the Russia-Ukraine conflict, amid reports of Russian jet interceptions over Alaska, has added to market weakness.
U.S. fighter jets were scrambled Wednesday to identify and intercept four Russian warplanes flying near Alaska, the North American Aerospace Defense Command said. https://t.co/xCl0PXoIYl
— CBS News (@CBSNews) September 25, 2025
Ongoing conflicts in Gaza have also prompted traders to seek safe-haven assets, such as gold, leaving Bitcoin struggling to attract new inflows. However, some market analysts see this as a temporary bearish case.
Analyst and Long-Term Investors Confident BTC Bull Market Not Yet Over
Crypto analyst Rekt Capital revealed that while Bitcoin is struggling below $112K, the 21-week EMA keeps climbing to try to reclaim $114,200 to invalidate the bearish setup.
He confirmed that the BTC price needs to remain above this EMA going forward to position for a reclaim of bullish territory and attempt a new high.
The consensus belief remains that Bitcoin and the general market may go lower, but the bull run is not over.
Bitcoin is still trading at a range low, with an inverse head-and-shoulders setting up, and as of right now, punching in a higher low.
The price is also following typical seasonality and pullbacks that in four of the last five years have done nearly the same thing before the market flies in October into November and beyond.
Despite the short-term weakness, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong believes Bitcoin (BTC) could reach $1 million by 2030.
Similarly, crypto billionaire and former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes also forecast that Bitcoin would reach $1M and could even surge as high as $3.4 million by 2028.
The prediction hinges on Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent implementing yield curve control policies that could trigger massive money printing, creating what Hayes calls a “once in a century change of the global monetary architecture.”
@CryptoHayes predicts $3.4 million Bitcoin by 2028 based on Treasury yield curve control policies and massive money printing scenarios.#Bitcoin #Predictionhttps://t.co/DeV8BsWviO
— Cryptonews.com (@cryptonews) September 23, 2025
Technical Analysis: Bitcoin’s $116K Rejection Points to $108K Target
On the technical front, the Bitcoin 1-hour chart shows that price has broken down from the upward channel that supported the recent rally, slipping below the $116,000 resistance and testing the $112,000 support zone.
The failed breakout attempts around resistance suggest that sellers have gained control, and the recent drop confirms weakening momentum.
At the moment, Bitcoin is hovering just above support at $111,000–$112,000, which is a key level to watch.
If this area holds, a bounce could see the price retest the $116,000 resistance.
However, if the support breaks decisively, it would likely open the door for further downside, possibly extending toward $108,000.
Overall, the chart reflects a shift in short-term sentiment from bullish to cautious, with the next move hinging on whether support holds or fails.
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