VanEck Maintains $180K Bitcoin Forecast as CME Basis Rates Hit 9% Peak

Investment firm VanEck has reaffirmed its $180,000 year-end Bitcoin price target despite recent market volatility, as CME basis funding rates surge to 9%, the highest level since February 2025.

Bitcoin rebounded to $124,000 on August 13 after sliding to $112,000 in early August, setting a new all-time high above July’s $123,838.

At the time of writing, bitcoin is trading at close to $115K, 8% down from its ATH.

Institutional Demand Powers Recovery Despite Volatility Compression

VanEck’s latest research indicates institutional demand remains robust, with exchange-traded products purchasing 54,000 BTC and Digital Asset Treasuries adding 72,000 BTC in July alone.

The firm maintains its bullish outlook established initially in November 2024, when Bitcoin traded around $88,000.

CME basis rates reaching 9% particularly indicate renewed speculative appetite among derivatives traders, matching levels last seen during February’s market peak.

Notably, options markets also show strong bullish positioning with call/put ratios rising to 3.21x – the highest since June 2024 – as investors spent $792 million on call premiums.

However, implied volatility compressed to just 32%, well below the 50% one-year average, making options cheaper for potential buyers.

A 25% out-of-the-money one-year call now costs approximately 6% of the spot price, compared to 18% in late 2024.

Similarly, the report showed that the mining sector posted mixed results despite Bitcoin’s gains, with the 13-miner equity index declining 4% excluding Applied Digital’s 54% surge.

U.S.-listed miners now command 31.5% of global Bitcoin hashrate, up from 29% earlier this year, marking a record high for American mining operations.

Industry Leaders Split on Million-Dollar Bitcoin Timeline

Earlier this month, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong joined the growing chorus of executives predicting Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2030, aligning with previous forecasts from Jack Dorsey and ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood.

Armstrong cited regulatory clarity and institutional adoption as key drivers for the ambitious target.

Similarly, SOL Strategies CEO Leah Wald offered a more conservative near-term outlook, projecting Bitcoin could climb to $175,000 by year-end.

Wald described her forecast as modest compared to other institutional projections, noting major investors like Cathie Wood and Larry Fink have endorsed “astronomically high” targets based on sophisticated models.

While everyone is bullish, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz pushed back against near-term million-dollar predictions, warning such levels would likely reflect U.S. economic collapse rather than crypto success.

Novogratz argued he would prefer lower Bitcoin prices in a stable economy over extreme valuations driven by a currency crisis.

Similarly, in July, Copper’s head of research, Fadi Aboualfa, suggested Bitcoin appears “primed for another significant leg upward” but cautioned that institutional-driven markets may follow a “more tempered path” compared to previous retail-fueled cycles.

Aboualfa projected Bitcoin could breach $140,000 in September and reach $150,000 by early October.

However, seeing this growing institutionally-driven bull market, Preston Pysh of Ego Death Capital has expressed skepticism about Wall Street’s growing Bitcoin influence, noting early adopters fear institutional derivatives trading could undermine Bitcoin’s safe-haven characteristics.

Pysh warned that traditional financial players might use Bitcoin differently than the self-custodying individuals who built the network.

Market Dynamics Suggest Traditional Cycles Remain Intact

Amid this mixed market speculation, new Glassnode analysis challenges widespread claims that institutional adoption has broken Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycles.

The analytics firm found current cycle duration and long-term holder profit-taking levels closely mirror previous patterns, contradicting “cycle death” narratives from industry figures.

Glassnode data shows Bitcoin’s current cycle has maintained supply above profitable levels for 273 days, making it the second-longest duration on record behind the 2015-2018 cycle’s 335 days.

Long-term holders have realized cumulative profits exceeding all previous cycles except 2016-2017.

Moreover, derivatives markets continue exhibiting elevated risk appetite characteristic of mature bull phases, with Bitcoin futures open interest maintaining $67 billion levels.

The recent unwinding of $2.3 billion in open interest during corrections ranks among the largest 23 trading days recorded.

Ethereum’s derivatives dominance reached critical levels, with perpetual futures volume hitting an all-time high of 67% versus Bitcoin markets.

However, combined altcoin liquidations peaked at $303 million daily, experiencing twice the volume compared to Bitcoin futures markets.

Market analysts view Bitcoin’s recent pullback as strategic repositioning rather than fundamental weakness, with NoOnes CEO Ray Youssef noting the correction followed overextended leverage after reaching new highs above $124,000.

The technical outlook hinges on Bitcoin holding psychological support between $100,000-$110,000, with structural buying interest intact above this range.

A decisive break below $112,000 could trigger a deeper retracement toward $110,000 and potentially $105,000.

However, recovery in risk appetite, especially as ETH and BTC reached new ATH, could reignite momentum toward previous ATH and beyond, given continued institutional demand outpacing supply.

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