Will Bitcoin Survive Without Trump? Hedge Funds Aren’t Convinced, Says Semler

Eric Semler, chairman of Semler Scientific Inc., believes many hedge funds remain unconvinced about Bitcoin’s long-term viability beyond the Trump administration.

Key Takeaways:

• Eric Semler says many hedge funds doubt Bitcoin’s future beyond the Trump administration.
• Despite skepticism, Semler’s firm is aggressively building a BTC treasury, targeting 105,000 coins.
• Crypto exposure among hedge funds is rising, with nearly half now holding digital assets.

Speaking in an interview with Natalie Brunell on Coin Stories, Semler said traditional finance still views Bitcoin as a fleeting trend that may not survive political transition.

“I think that they think it is a fly-by-night concept and that it is probably going to, after the Trump administration, go back down a lot,” said Semler, who also founded TCS Capital Management.

Trump’s Crypto Push Faces Uncertainty Beyond His Term

His remarks come as debate grows over whether U.S. political support for crypto will endure past President Trump’s term.

While Trump recently endorsed a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, figures like JAN3 CEO Samson Mow have warned that such initiatives could quickly unravel under a different administration.

Despite broader skepticism, Semler has gone in the opposite direction. In May, Semler Scientific became only the second U.S. public company to adopt a Bitcoin treasury strategy.

The firm currently holds 4,449 BTC and plans to ramp that up to 105,000 BTC within two and a half years, targeting 10,000 BTC by year-end.

For Semler, institutional doubt is part of the opportunity. “When you’re making a bet on something that the majority doesn’t believe in, and you’re right, you make so much more money,” he said.

“I love the negativity; I’m a contrarian investor,” he added, noting that his most profitable investments came when others were dismissive. “Those are the types of investments that have the highest returns.”

While some hedge fund managers are still hesitant, the broader trend suggests rising crypto exposure.

A 2024 survey by the Alternative Investment Management Association and PwC showed that 47% of hedge fund managers now hold some level of crypto exposure, up from 29% in 2023 and 37% in 2022.

Looking further back, a 2021 Intertrust Global survey of hedge fund CFOs showed that nearly all expected to allocate 7.2% of their portfolios to crypto by 2026.

VanEck Warns BTC Treasury Strategy May Backfire

Just recently, VanEck’s head of digital asset research, Matthew Sigel, raised concerns about the Bitcoin treasury strategies used by certain public companies, suggesting that continued accumulation of BTC could soon harm shareholders more than help.

He specifically criticized the use of at-the-market (ATM) share issuance programs, warning that they can become dilutive when stock prices approach the company’s Bitcoin net asset value (NAV).

Sigel proposed several measures to prevent value erosion, including pausing ATM programs if a company’s stock trades below 0.95x NAV for over 10 days.

He drew comparisons to past failures in the crypto mining sector, where excessive dilution and executive pay led to major shareholder losses.

As an example, he cited Semler Scientific, a medical tech firm that entered the BTC space in 2024.

Despite acquiring 3,808 BTC, its stock has fallen over 45%, and its mNAV has dropped to 0.82x.

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