Bitcoin (BTC) on-chain and derivatives markets reflect compressed volatility and a tightening supply while registering new all-time highs, according to Glassnode.
A July 10 report indicated that the Accumulation Trend Score has shown steady investor buying since June, with the price remaining within a narrow band. The report came hours ahead of Bitcoin exploding into price discovery above $112,000.
As of press time, it was trading at $116,000 after hitting a new all-time high of $117,500.
Long-term holders continue to add to balances, with supply growth outpacing miner issuance. This reflects a preference to hold coins until a clear price move occurs.
Entities holding under 100 BTC have added 19,300 BTC per month, exceeding the 13,400 BTC per month issuance, thereby absorbing new supply into longer-term holdings.
Realized volatility across 1-week to 6-month windows is near the lowest levels recorded since December 2022. Only 6% of trading days since then have seen a tighter 30-day price range, while just 0.4% have shown a narrower 60-day range.
This multi-scale compression indicates that volatility has contracted, forming a coiled structure where modest demand shifts can drive large price movements.
At-the-money implied volatility in options markets has declined across all timeframes, with percentile ranks in the lowest decile since late 2022.
Derivatives and ETF flows
Options markets are not pricing for high volatility, a condition that has historically preceded directional price moves when liquidity is thin.
Glassnode’s Realized Supply Density metric indicated that 19% of the supply is positioned within a 10% band around the current price. Small price movements can significantly impact unrealized profitability for a large share of holders, thereby increasing the potential for reactive trading once the price breaks out.
Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US now hold a record $137 billion in assets under management (AUM), representing 6.4% of Bitcoin’s market capitalization.
While net inflows slowed to $144 million last week, steady demand has moved supply into regulated investment products. BlackRock’s IBIT ETF now holds 55% of total ETF AUM and dominates ETF options open interest, with its cost basis closely aligning with broader market positioning models.
The report concluded that Bitcoin’s all-time highs occur within an environment of low realized volatility, tight liquidity, and heavy on-chain accumulation, creating conditions where volatility builds quietly across markets while prices hold near record levels.
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