Bitcoin difficulty predicted to fall 5% as hashrate dips

The Bitcoin network’s hash rate has exhibited pronounced volatility in 2025, peaking above 1,000 EH/s on several occasions while displaying frequent intraday dips as low as 700 EH/s.

This behavior has directly affected the varied adjustments to mining difficulty, which have been recalibrated seven times in the past eleven weeks.

As of block height 907200, difficulty stands at 127.62T following a +1.07% increase. According to data from mempool.space, the next adjustment, projected in approximately nine days, is expected to decrease by 4.97%, reinforcing the cyclical interplay between hashrate fluctuations and difficulty recalibration.

The moving average of the hash rate (Hashrate MA), which smooths out daily noise, indicates a gradual upward trend beginning in early April. This trajectory coincides with a substantial difficulty hike of 7.96% that occurred at block 905184, suggesting increased mining participation and hardware optimization. However, this growth was preceded by a notable 7.48% downward adjustment at block 903168, reflecting reduced operational capacity and temporarily unplugged machines.

Prior to April, difficulty remained relatively stable while Bitcoin performed near the 800 EH/s hash rate threshold. However, from mid-April onward, both raw and moving-average hash rates entered a higher band, oscillating between 850 and 950 EH/s. The associated difficulty changes responded in tandem, with a series of positive and negative adjustments as the network attempted to maintain Bitcoin’s targeted 10-minute block interval.

For example, while the difficulty saw a minor -0.45% correction at block 901152, this was shortly followed by a 4.38% increase at block 899136 and a 2.13% rise at block 897120, each reflecting short-term recalibrations to balance throughput.

The graph’s orange moving average line shows a brief plateau in May, despite some sharp day-to-day hashrate spikes, likely driven by intermittent hardware uptime among large-scale operators. The current 1-week average stands at 891.7 EH/s, placing it near the mid-range of the observed 2025 band.

As Bitcoin’s difficulty responds to the rolling 2,016-block average of block times, the frequent hash rate spikes and retracements observed in recent months are prompting more aggressive corrective cycles.

The upcoming projected difficulty drop of 4.97% would mark a significant downward adjustment, indicating a reversion following a period of sustained computational strain. If realized, the upcoming -4.97% drop would mark one of the steepest difficulty declines of 2025, only beaten by the -7.48% adjustment at block 903168 five weeks ago.

While hashrate oscillates with increasing amplitude, the current technical trend maintains Bitcoin’s operational tempo within protocol norms.

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