Bitcoin price traded near $118,500 on Thursday as a U.S. government shutdown boosted rate-cut odds, the dollar eased, and a visible short squeeze accelerated across derivatives venues.
Gold printed fresh record highs around $3,895 per ounce as rate-cut pricing firmed and the dollar index hovered near 97.6. These conditions historically align with stronger performance in bitcoin when real yields drift lower. According to Treasury market data, 10-year TIPS yields sat near 1.77 to 1.78 percent, reinforcing the macro impulse that coincided with the move.
The day’s jump followed a reset in positioning that cleared leverage into late September, leaving the tape sensitive to macro headlines and flow shocks. Last week saw $1.7 billion in crypto liquidations, a cleanout that typically reduces one-way convexity until a new catalyst arrives.
According to CoinGlass, liquidation heatmaps into the $118,000 to $120,000 zone showed dense short pockets ahead of the break, and once cleared, those clusters often act like step-ladders for continuation if spot demand persists.
Bitcoin is now just 4.8% away from its all-time high. Should the squeeze continue, we could see price discovery later in ‘Uptober.’
Funding on major perpetual pairs leaned mildly positive into the move, with Binance perpetuals printing around +0.0084 percent late September, the kind of cool-positive backdrop that supports trend without flashing a near-term exhaustion signal.
Spot market pipes remain the engine.
According to Farside Investors, U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs saw a renewed burst of activity in, with a single-day net inflow of $645 million yesterday, part of a multi-day run that crossed $1.6 billion.
When daily net inflows sustain beyond roughly $500 million for two sessions, price has tended to add another 3 to 7 percent over the subsequent 72 hours based on recent 2025 episodes, while two or more sessions of outflows worse than $300 million have been associated with softer tape and a tilt toward negative funding.
The flows are the mechanical bridge between macro narratives and executed orders, and on days when the dollar slips and real yields drift lower, ETF creations often carry that macro into the close.
On-chain trend framing stayed anchored on a single number traders can track without guesswork. According to Glassnode’s last Week On-Chain, the short-term holder realized price sat near $111,000, which functions as a moving line in the sand for momentum.
A decisive daily hold above that level historically keeps the trend construction intact, while a loss opens an air pocket toward previously accepted value around $106,000 to $108,000 where liquidations and bids have met more frequently this quarter.
That anchor blends with the visible liquidation map above today’s print, where remaining pockets around $120,500 to $121,000 form obvious magnets if flows extend.
Macro context provides timing.
The US government shutdown that began Oct. 1 complicated the data path into the Oct. 29 Federal Reserve meeting, driving traders to raise the probability of a 25 basis point cut as a hedge against prolonged uncertainty.
In that setting, the dollar’s slide toward the high-97s and a grind lower in real yields lined up with a bid across gold and bitcoin, a pairing that tends to re-appear when inflation-adjusted rates matter more than growth surprises.
The signal is less in commentary and more in the tape since Bitcoin’s largest spot conduit is now the ETF complex, which channels macro shifts into daily creations and redemptions.
Options provided another lens on the near-term path. According to Deribit open-interest data, approximately $8 billion of Bitcoin options are set to expire on Oct. 31, with concentration building around round strikes at $120,000 and $125,000.
Dealer hedging can pin price in those neighborhoods when flows net to neutral, which helps explain why post-breakout tapes often compress toward strikes before a fresh impulse from ETF prints or macro knocks them out of orbit. Skew and DVOL into the end of the month remain the quick tells on whether today’s move is bleeding into premium or staying spot-led.
Gold set records on shutdown-linked hedging, while Bitcoin joined the move with a higher beta. This relationship often emerges when dollar direction and real rates dominate.
BlackRock’s IBIT has been the fastest-growing ETF in history, a detail that keeps the structural demand narrative relevant whenever macro sets the backdrop. In such windows, the comparison is not a matter of sound money lore but the practical effect of lower discount rates meeting a high-gamma asset with live creation rails.
Near-term path can be framed in scenarios anchored to observable inputs rather than adjectives.
An upside extension toward $121,000 to $125,000 becomes more probable if aggregate U.S. spot ETF inflows exceed $500 million for two more consecutive sessions, the dollar index holds below 98, and 10-year TIPS grind toward 1.7 percent, while funding stays cool-positive and the liquidation pockets above $118,000 continue to clear.
A high-volatility range between $112,000 and $121,000 fits a tape where ETF prints chop between plus or minus $200 million, shutdown headlines pull the dollar back and forth, and dealer positioning around $120,000 exerts a pin into the Oct. 31 expiry, according to Deribit data and historical conditioning.
A pullback into the $106,000 to $111,000 band aligns with two or more days of outflows worse than $300 million, a bounce in the dollar index above 99, an upswing in real yields back toward or above 1.9 percent, and a decisive loss of the $111,000 short-term holder threshold.
To keep the analysis grounded, the most relevant signposts can be monitored intraday and converted to a working map.
| Signpost | Current/Reference | Bullish if | Bearish if |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aggregate US spot ETF net flow | See Farside, SoSoValue | ≥ +$500M for ≥2 days | ≤ -$300M for ≥2 days |
| Dollar Index (DXY) | ~97.6 (Reuters) | < 98 sustained | ≥ 99 sustained |
| 10-yr TIPS yield | ~1.77–1.78% | Drift toward 1.6–1.7% | ≥ 1.9% |
| STH realized price | ~$111,000 (Glassnode) | Daily close above | Daily close below |
| Liquidation pockets | $118K–$121K (CoinGlass) | Cleared with steady funding | Refill with negative funding |
| Options OI concentration | $120K/$125K (Deribit) | Pin breaks on flow impulse | Pin holds into Oct 31 |
The structural point remains that today’s move is more plumbing than prose.
ETF creations turn macro inputs into tickets, liquidation clusters translate flows into momentum, and on-chain cost basis offers a clean risk marker that aligns with how more systematic funds monitor trends.
The next set of US ETF prints will test whether the past month’s re-acceleration returns in tandem with a softer dollar.
The $111,000 short-term holder line remains the threshold that separates an extension from a digestion phase. The remaining liquidation bands above $120,000 are now close enough to matter if flows extend before options hedging reasserts control.
The market will resolve the near-term question through those inputs rather than through rhetoric, and the closing balance of ETF creations and redemptions will show whether the bid is extending or fading.
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