Bitcoin is facing a hidden “supply wall” at $93,000 that creates a ceiling no rally can break right now

Bitcoin surged $3,000 in an hour on Dec. 17, reclaiming $90,000 as $120 million in short positions vaporized, then collapsed to $86,000 as $200 million in longs liquidated, completing a $140 billion market-cap swing in two hours.

The movement was driven by leverage, making it seem that leveraged positions are out of control. However, Glassnode's data tells a different story.

In a Dec. 17 report, the firm noted that perpetual futures open interest has declined from cycle highs, funding rates stayed neutral through the drawdown, and short-dated implied volatility compressed after the FOMC rather than spiking.

The whipsaw was thin liquidity colliding with concentrated options positioning, not reckless leverage. The actual constraint is structural: overhead supply between $93,000 and $120,000, combined with December options expiries that mechanically pin price into a range.

Overhead resistance

Bitcoin price briefly lost the $85,000 footing by mid-December, levels last seen nearly a year earlier, despite two major rallies. That round trip left dense supply from buyers who entered near the highs, with the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $101,500.

As long as the price stays below that threshold, every rally runs into sellers trying to reduce losses, mirroring early 2022 when recovery attempts were capped by overhead resistance.

Coins held at a loss climbed to 6.7 million BTC, the highest level this cycle, and have remained in the 6-7 million range since mid-November.

Of the 23.7% of supply underwater, 10.2% is held by long-term holders and 13.5% by short-term holders, meaning loss-bearing supply from recent buyers is maturing into the long-term cohort and subjecting holders to prolonged stress that historically precedes capitulation.

Loss realization is rising. Supply attributed to “loss sellers” reached roughly 360,000 BTC, and further downside, particularly below the True Market Mean at $81,300, risks expanding this cohort.

The Dec. 17 liquidation event was a violent expression of an underlying constraint: more coins overhead than patient capital willing to absorb them.

Spot remains episodic

Cumulative Volume Delta shows periodic buy-side bursts that failed to develop into sustained accumulation.

Coinbase CVD remains relatively constructive from US-based participation, while Binance and aggregate flows remain choppy.

Recent declines have not triggered decisive CVD expansion, meaning dip-buying remains tactical rather than conviction-driven.

Corporate treasury flows remain episodic, with sporadic large inflows from a small subset of firms interspersed with minimal activity.

Recent weakness has not triggered coordinated treasury accumulation, suggesting corporate buyers remain price-sensitive.

Treasury activity contributes to headline volatility but is not a reliable structural demand.

Futures have de-risked, options pin the range

Perpetual futures contradict the “leverage out of control” narrative. Open interest trended lower from cycle highs, signaling a reduction in positions rather than fresh leverage, while funding rates remained contained, oscillating around neutral.

The Dec. 17 liquidation was severe because it happened in a thinned-out market where modest unwinds moved prices violently, not because aggregate leverage reached dangerous levels.

Implied volatility compressed at the front end after the FOMC, while longer maturities remained stable, suggesting traders actively reduced near-term exposure.

The 25-delta skew remained in put territory even as front-end vol compressed, and traders maintain downside protection rather than increasing it.

Options flow has been dominated by put sales, followed by put purchases, indicating premium monetization alongside continued hedging. Put selling associates with yield generation and confidence that downside remains contained, while put buying shows protection persists.

Traders are comfortable harvesting premium in a range-driven market.

The critical constraint now is expiry concentration. Open interest shows risk heavily concentrated in two late-December expiries, with meaningful volume rolling off Dec. 19 and a larger concentration on Dec. 26.

Large expiries compress positioning into specific dates, amplifying their influence. At current levels, this leaves dealers long gamma on both sides, incentivizing them to sell rallies and buy dips.

This mechanically reinforces range-bound action and suppresses volatility. The effect intensifies on Dec. 26, the year's largest expiry. Once that passes and hedges roll off, price gravity from this positioning weakens.

Until then, the market is mechanically pinned between roughly $81,000 and $93,000, with the lower bound defined by the True Market Mean and the upper bound by overhead supply and dealer hedging.

The Dec. 17 whipsaw was a liquidity event inside a structurally constrained market, not evidence of spiraling leverage. Futures open interest is down, funding is neutral, and short-dated volatility compressed.

What looks like a leverage problem is supply distribution combined with options-driven gamma pinning.

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