Gold and silver pushed to fresh all-time highs this week, creating a financial gap that sets the stage for a potential Bitcoin catch-up rally.
According to Gold Price data, gold reached an all-time high of over $4,600, with industry experts predicting a rise above $5,000. At the same time, silver has topped $90, and its market cap crossed $5 trillion for the first time.
Market analysts noted that these precious metals' price movements reflect a “hard asset” dominance, with investors fleeing sovereign debt risks amid growing global macro uncertainty.
Considering this, Bitcoin, widely regarded as “digital gold,” has also made a solid start of its own, topping $95,000 for the first time this year in the last 24 hours.
However, its run has been more muted than the precious metals'.
For some observers, that lag is less a warning sign than a familiar rotation. Their view is that Bitcoin tends to follow hard-asset momentum with a delay, and that a mix of timing signals and institutional flows could pull it toward six-figure prices.
Bitcoin lags gold
The primary technical argument for a looming Bitcoin rally rests on statistical evidence that gold prices act as a leading indicator for the crypto market.
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André Dragosch, Bitwise Europe's head of research, highlighted a specific correlation suggesting that the current metals rally effectively signals a subsequent move in digital assets.
His position centers on the concept of “Gold to Bitcoin Rotation,” a scenario he claims remains firmly in play amid the current market trajectory.
Dragosch, using Granger causality tests, pointed out that gold tends to lead Bitcoin by approximately four to seven months.
This lag period implies that the institutional capital that floods into gold as a safe haven eventually rotates into Bitcoin as risk appetites adjust within the hard-asset framework.
Additional data from Bitcoin analyst Sminston With backs his view.
According to With, historical data reveals a recurring pattern in which gold bull runs precede Bitcoin breakouts.
He pointed out that the current technical setup depicts gold entering a vertical price discovery phase, while Bitcoin remains in the early stages of a corresponding shift.
This divergence aligns with Dragosch's rotation thesis and suggests the explosive move in gold is currently “loading” the spring for the cryptocurrency market.
If the trend of diminishing lag times persists, the window for Bitcoin to close the valuation gap is likely shorter than in previous cycles, validating the urgency seen in recent institutional flows.
ETF plays
Beyond statistical correlations, the fundamental picture for Bitcoin supports the thesis of an imminent breakout.
Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, challenges the popular narrative that the 2025 gold spike was a sudden reaction to immediate demand. Instead, he argues that price discovery was a function of supply exhaustion that unfolded over the years.
According to him, the catalyst for the modern gold run began in 2022 when Central banks' purchase of gold spiked from approximately 500 tonnes to 1,000 tonnes annually following the US seizure of Russia's Treasury deposits.
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He pointed out that these purchases fundamentally tilted the supply-demand balance, yet the price did not immediately reflect this shift. During the period, the gold price rose only 2% in 2022, 13% in 2023, and 27% in 2024.
However, it was not until 2025 that gold prices went parabolic, rising 65%. Hougan explains that the initial massive central bank demand was met by existing holders who were willing to sell their gold. So, gold's value only soared after those sellers finally “ran out of ammo.”
Hougan applies this exact framework to the current state of the Bitcoin market. Since US spot ETFs debuted in January 2024, they have consistently purchased more than 100% of the new Bitcoin supply issued by the network.
However, the flagship crypto's price has not yet gone vertical because existing holders have been willing to sell into the ETF's aggressive accumulation. Indeed, CryptoSlate previously reported that Bitcoin long-term holders were among the heaviest sellers of the top asset over the past year.
Considering this, Hougan argues that BTC's price will rise when the supply of willing sellers is eventually depleted, just as it did in the gold market.
When that exhaustion point is reached, the disconnect between supply and demand will likely force a parabolic repricing similar to gold's 2025 performance.
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Macro drivers and the Fed crisis
Meanwhile, the catalyst for the surge in gold and silver provides further evidence that Bitcoin will follow suit. The metals market has been reacting to a severe test of confidence in the US Federal Reserve's independence.
Reports of criminal investigations into Federal Reserve leadership have rattled faith in the stability of the dollar and the neutrality of monetary policy. This uncertainty has driven global capital into assets immune to political interference.
Gold serves as the primary safe haven during such crises, reacting immediately to news. Bitcoin, often viewed as a “risk-on” safe haven, typically reacts with a delay as investors first secure their defensive positions in bullion before allocating to digital stores of value.
So, that “trust premium” that is currently lifting gold to $4,600 is the same fundamental driver that underpins the investment case for Bitcoin.
As the initial shock of the Fed news is absorbed, the market is expected to seek out assets with similar scarcity and independence, but with higher upside potential. Bitcoin fits this profile perfectly, offering a convex hedge against the high sovereign risks that are currently roiling traditional markets.
Bitcoin price prediction
Bitcoin investors looking ahead have identified specific price levels that could act as catalysts for the catch-up trade.
In the options market, that positioning has been shifting, but it still points to a market focused on upside breakpoints.
Data from Deribit shows that BTC traders built bullish exposure through call options with near-term expiries, including Jan. 30 $98,000 calls, and the February $100,000 calls.
This week, some of that short-dated optimism was taken off the table. Still, some older January $100,000 calls were rolled forward into March $125,000 calls, signalling that some traders are keeping the upside view but giving it more time and aiming higher.
These bets could create what traders call a “gamma magnet.” As the spot price of Bitcoin approaches this level, market makers who sold options are forced to buy the underlying asset to hedge their exposure.
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This buying pressure can create a feedback loop that pulls prices rapidly higher, sometimes overshooting fundamental targets.
If the correlation with gold holds and the four-to-seven-month lag resolves as Dragosch suggests, analysts believe Bitcoin is targeting a move into the $120,000 to $130,000 range in the near term.
This would represent a percentage gain similar to the recent moves in silver, which tends to outperform gold during the latter stages of a hard-asset bull run.
The post Bitcoin is following a discreet lag pattern behind gold that puts a $130k target immediately in play appeared first on CryptoSlate.
