CryptoMediaClub
Monday, October 6, 2025
  • All news
  • Bitcoin
  • Ethereum
  • Altcoins
  • NFT
  • Blockchain
  • Analysis
No Result
View All Result
  • All news
  • Bitcoin
  • Ethereum
  • Altcoins
  • NFT
  • Blockchain
  • Analysis
No Result
View All Result
CryptoMediaClub
No Result
View All Result
Home Analysis

Fed cuts of 75 to 100 bps in 2025 could unleash a $6B Bitcoin ETF buying wave soon

09.09.2025
A A
0
118
VIEWS
ShareShare

Bitcoin and Ethereum face a fourth quarter shaped by Federal Reserve cuts and ETF demand. Markets are leaning toward a September policy move after the weakest monthly jobs gain since 2020, and crypto’s near-term path hinges on how rate expectations translate into spot ETF flows, funding costs, and options hedging.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, August nonfarm payrolls rose by just 22,000, and the unemployment rate reached 4.3 percent.

Futures markets put a September cut at high odds. CME’s FedWatch tool shows rate probabilities embedded in fed funds futures, and broader markets are aligning with that setup as the dollar trades near recent lows and gold pushes new highs.

Per Reuters, the dollar index fell to a seven-week low and spot gold set a record this week, while traders priced a near-certain September reduction with a small tail for a larger move.

The next policy dates are fixed on the Federal Reserve’s calendar, with a two-day meeting on Sept. 16–17, then October and December sessions that will close the year. Some banks now map two quarter-point cuts in 2025, September and December, a shift that followed the August labor report.

What does history tell us?

ETF flows around prior easing windows provide a baseline for what new cuts could mean. In the week of the September 2024 cut, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs collectively took in roughly $2.4 billion, and Ethereum ETFs added about $600 million across the Monday to Friday prints.

During the December 2024 cut week, Bitcoin ETFs added about $1.6 billion while Ethereum funds were near flat. According to Farside Investors’ Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF tables, those episodes share a pattern, net-positive flows clustering around the decision with softer days on either side.

The last 60 days show how sensitive those tapes remain to macro. For Bitcoin ETFs, three daily prints above $800 million occurred in mid to late August, even with outflows on adjacent days, lifting the cumulative U.S. spot ETF net intake to about the mid-50 billions.

For Ethereum, a late-summer burst delivered the largest single day since inception, roughly $1.02 billion on Aug. 11, and cumulative net flows now stand in the low double-digit billions.

These tapes capture two points, flow momentum can flip quickly on macro headlines, and when inflows bunch, price tends to chase, with a practical, flows-first conversion for Bitcoin in 2024–2025 episodes falling near 2–3 percent per $1 billion of net buys during impulse weeks, a rough guide rather than a rule.

What do Q4 rate cuts mean for Bitcoin?

With that history in hand, three policy paths frame Q4. In a 75 bps total easing path into December, for example, a 25 bps cut at each meeting, baseline weekly Bitcoin ETF net flows in decision weeks could run $1.2-$2.0 billion and Ethereum $300-$700 million, assuming the summer relationship between cut odds and allocations persists.

Using a simple elasticity, every additional $1 billion of net Bitcoin ETF demand concentrated over five trading days could add 2–3 percent to spot returns that week, front-loaded into the post-decision sessions if guidance nods to follow-on cuts.

A 100 bps path, for example, 50 bps in September, followed by two more 25 bps cuts, or 25 bps in September with a faster follow-up, historically compresses real yields faster and has produced sharper risk-on impulses across gold and duration; if that repeats, the upper bound of the flow bands becomes more relevant, and BTC could see multi-day $700-$1,000 million runs rather than isolated spikes.

A 125 bps path, rare but feasible if labor data deteriorates and revisions are heavy, would likely coincide with a meaningfully weaker dollar and easier financial conditions, in which case model sensitivities should allow for sustained multi-week inflow regimes rather than single-week surges.

In that high-easing case, modeled ETF demand scales to the upper band, or about $1.5-6.0 billion of additional Bitcoin ETF inflows through Q4, a range that translates to roughly 3-18 percent in flow-linked price impulse depending on how tightly demand clusters around decision weeks.

Ethereum vs Fed rates

Options matter for Ethereum because listed options on spot Ethereum ETFs enable dealers to hedge systematically. The SEC’s April 9 approval order for NYSE American permitted options on the Bitwise Ethereum ETF, the Grayscale Ethereum Trust, and the Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust, and similar filings at Cboe followed in April.

Where options volumes are robust, dealer gamma can dampen intraday ranges near large strikes into expiry weeks yet amplify directional moves when positioning is offside, so the ETH scenarios above should be paired with an options-adjusted elasticity.

A practical pair of sensitivities is plus or minus 1-2 percentage points around the base elasticity during heavy options weeks and a reduced impact during low-volume periods.

Macro cross-currents could stretch or compress these ranges. A record $100 billion weekly four-week bill sale highlights a shift toward very short-dated Treasury financing, which lowers the front end of the curve when cuts arrive, which is supportive for risk premia, though rollover risk rises if funding conditions tighten.

The calendar cadence also matters, with the September meeting setting forward guidance that shapes the end of the year. Market-implied paths for year-end policy, via the Atlanta Fed’s Market Probability Tracker, still distribute meaningful weight to multiple 2025-2026 cuts, which, if realized, sustain a lower-volatility backdrop for systematic inflows.

Conversely, if inflation data re-accelerates or if revisions reduce labor slack, the flow bands compress toward the lower edge, and elasticity tilts down as duration and the dollar stabilize.

Bitcoin and Ethereum reactions to rate cuts by the numbers

Putting numbers on price targets requires converting flow bands and rate paths into return ranges.

For Bitcoin, if September and December decision weeks each deliver $1.5-$2.5 billion of net ETF buys under a 75-100 bps total easing path, a 4-7 percent cumulative impulse from flows alone is plausible across those weeks, with spot outcomes widened by funding, basis, and the dollar path.

In a 100–125 bps path with heavier weeks, for example $2.5-$4.0 billion concentrated, the flow-linked contribution moves into the high single-digits. For Ethereum, the same logic applies at smaller dollar scales, but options hedging can either smooth or accentuate those moves near expiries.

Path (total bps by Dec) Decision weeks modeled BTC ETF net flows (Q4, $B) ETH ETF net flows (Q4, $B) BTC flow-to-return effect (%) ETH flow-to-return effect (%)
75 2 0.8 to 3.2 0.2 to 0.8 1.6 to 9.6 0.6 to 4.0
100 3 1.2 to 4.8 0.3 to 1.2 2.4 to 14.4 0.9 to 6.0
125 3 (upper bands) 1.5 to 6.0 0.4 to 1.6 3.0 to 18.0 1.2 to 8.0

The setup is data-dependent and should be updated in real time, but the scaffolding is stable, pair the FedWatch probabilities with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF flows, and use the FOMC calendar to map decision weeks.

For macro context on risk appetite, track the dollar and gold trend and use the Market Probability Tracker to cross-check the implied path of policy.

The post Fed cuts of 75 to 100 bps in 2025 could unleash a $6B Bitcoin ETF buying wave soon appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Share9Tweet6ShareSharePin2

Related Posts

StanChart reaffirms $200k year-end projection for Bitcoin as US gov shutdown becomes tailwind
Analysis

StanChart reaffirms $200k year-end projection for Bitcoin as US gov shutdown becomes tailwind

03.10.2025
0

Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets research, Geoffrey Kendrick, reaffirmed his year-end Bitcoin (BTC) price target of $200,000 on Oct....

Read moreDetails
BlackRock’s $24 billion Bitcoin flywheel is moving BTC liquidity with 800% growth

BlackRock’s $24 billion Bitcoin flywheel is moving BTC liquidity with 800% growth

03.10.2025
Record $300B stablecoin liquidity ready to fund Bitcoin and Ethereum purchases

Record $300B stablecoin liquidity ready to fund Bitcoin and Ethereum purchases

03.10.2025
Bitcoin above $120k: Here’s 3 data points bulls must watch next

Bitcoin above $120k: Here’s 3 data points bulls must watch next

03.10.2025
Will a Europe-US BTC reserve race actually happen?

Will a Europe-US BTC reserve race actually happen?

03.10.2025
Load More
Next Post
CFTC May Approve Foreign Crypto Exchanges Under U.S. Rules — What It Means for Traders

CFTC May Approve Foreign Crypto Exchanges Under U.S. Rules — What It Means for Traders

0 0 votes
Рейтинг статьи
Subscribe
Notify of
guest
guest
0 комментариев
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments

Recommended

StanChart predicts new highs for Bitcoin in February as US treasury yields stabilize

StanChart predicts new highs for Bitcoin in February as US treasury yields stabilize

8 months ago
BitTorrent token defies market uncertainty; BTT posts 22-week high

BitTorrent token defies market uncertainty; BTT posts 22-week high

2 years ago

Joe Rogan and Post Malone Sound Alarm Bells Over Central Bank Digital Currencies

2 years ago
WAGMI Games Recruits Top Talent to Revolutionize Web3 Gaming

WAGMI Games Recruits Top Talent to Revolutionize Web3 Gaming

2 years ago

Categories

  • All news
  • Altcoins
  • Analysis
  • Bitcoin
  • Blockchain
  • Ethereum
  • NFT
No Result
View All Result

Highlights

From Tether to STBL: Reeve Collins Charts the Future of Stablecoins and Web3

Fiscal Fears Fuel Flight to Bitcoin, Gold as Major Currencies Falter

Vietnam Yet To Receive Proposals For Digital Asset Trading Pilots: Ministry

Morgan Stanley Wealth Unit Advises 2% to 4% Crypto Allocation In Portfolios

Russian Central Bank to Launch ‘Large-scale Audit of Nation’s Crypto Holdings’

US Government Shutdown Crisis: Financial Market Turmoil Intensifies, But Investors Flock to H Mining

Trending

Grayscale Launches First US-Listed Spot Crypto ETFs Allowing Staking for ETH and SOL
All news

Grayscale Launches First US-Listed Spot Crypto ETFs Allowing Staking for ETH and SOL

06.10.2025
0

Grayscale has launched the first US-listed spot crypto ETFs that allow staking for their Ethereum products, the...

Can’t Mine XRP? Explore New Avenues with Mint Miner Cloud Mining

Can’t Mine XRP? Explore New Avenues with Mint Miner Cloud Mining

06.10.2025
Bitcoin’s Surge Led to Widespread Liquidations, Prompting Investors to Turn to Arc Miner

Bitcoin’s Surge Led to Widespread Liquidations, Prompting Investors to Turn to Arc Miner

06.10.2025
From Tether to STBL: Reeve Collins Charts the Future of Stablecoins and Web3

From Tether to STBL: Reeve Collins Charts the Future of Stablecoins and Web3

06.10.2025
Fiscal Fears Fuel Flight to Bitcoin, Gold as Major Currencies Falter

Fiscal Fears Fuel Flight to Bitcoin, Gold as Major Currencies Falter

06.10.2025
  • All news
  • Altcoins
  • Bitcoin
  • Blockchain
  • Ethereum
  • NFT
  • Analysis
Editor: cryptomediaclub.com@gmail.com
Advertising: digestmediaholding@gmail.com

Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoMediaClub is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoMediaClub on whether to sell, buy or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk.
CryptoMediaClub covers fintech, blockchain and Bitcoin bringing you the latest crypto news and analyses on the future of money.

© 2023 Crypto News. All Rights Reserved

No Result
View All Result
  • All news
  • Bitcoin
  • Ethereum
  • Altcoins
  • NFT
  • Blockchain
  • Analysis

Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoMediaClub is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoMediaClub on whether to sell, buy or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk.
CryptoMediaClub covers fintech, blockchain and Bitcoin bringing you the latest crypto news and analyses on the future of money.

© 2023 Crypto News. All Rights Reserved

wpDiscuz