Analysts Raise Odds of Bitcoin Spot ETF Approval by U.S. SEC

• Eric Balchunas remarked that they had upped the odds to 75% from an earlier 65%.
• Major financial giants have their “first deadline” judgment this week.

After Grayscale’s recent success over the SEC, Bloomberg analysts have increased the likelihood of a permitted spot Bitcoin ETF by the end of this year.

Due to the unanimous and decisive manner in which the U.S Court of Appeals Circuit reached its verdict in the current case, Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas remarked on Twitter on August 30 that they had upped the odds to 75% from an earlier 65%.

Balchunas stated:

“James Seyffart and I are upping our odds to 75% of spot bitcoin ETFs launching this year (95% by end of ’24). While we factored Grayscale win into our prev 65% odds, the unanimity & decisiveness of ruling was beyond expectations and leaves SEC w “very little wiggle room.”

All Eyes on SEC

As Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Elliot Stein pointed out in a separate note on August 30th, that the judges collectively rejected the arguments put forth by the SEC, thus the agency will have trouble justifying any further rejections in the face of impending deadlines.

Seyffart chimed in on twitter with his own estimate that spot Bitcoin ETF approvals would be completed by 2024 end, with approval probabilities having increased to 95% at that point.

Moreover, major financial giants have their “first deadline” judgment on Bitcoin spot ETF applications within the next five days. To this end, Balchunas has predicted that he “wouldn’t be surprised” if the SEC drags its feet on the future Bitcoin spot ETF applications.

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