Bitcoin briefly surpassed $81,000 today, with net realized profits hitting $207.56 million, the highest single-month reading in this cycle.
Who is selling? ETF inflows and spot demand absorbed the early pressure, but if long-term holders above the 155-day band were the ones booking gains at $80K, the market signal changes.
Realized profit measures the aggregate gain locked in when coins move on-chain above their original acquisition price. According to Santiment, the $207.56 million reading on Sunday marks the highest amount for any single month in the current cycle. It was not an all-time high by any means, but a cycle-high reading at a psychologically loaded price level.
Coins purchased near $70,000 crossed into profit territory once Bitcoin cleared $80,000, and a portion of those holders sold. Santiment noted that “high profit-taking in a rising market may indicate that buyers have taken advantage of the supply,” while also flagging that Bitcoin “demonstrated active demand during the move as it surpassed $80K while holders locked in gains.”
The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) is trending toward levels historically associated with local tops in prior cycles. When SOPR runs hot at a major round number after a multi-month recovery rally, the historical pattern splits: in 2021, similar readings at resistance preceded a 20–30% retracement before continuation; in late 2023, they were absorbed, and the market pushed higher within weeks.
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Can Bitcoin Hold $80K and Turn It Into Support?
Analyst Michaël van de Poppe noted that Bitcoin’s lower-timeframe structure remains intact as long as price holds above the $73,000–$75,000 range, but the rejection near $80,000 is not a clean technical signal. The $81,000 level is where cycle-based models flag elevated risk.
Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson has publicly warned that losing Bitcoin can open the door to $65,500.
Calm down. Bitcoin only went up $20K.
But it had dropped $65K.
We are in a Bear Market.
For Elliott Wave people, it is just a wave.
For Wyckoff people, it could just be a redistribution.
For Fibonacci people, it is just an expansion.
For Onchain people, it is just a test of…— Joao Wedson (@joao_wedson) May 4, 2026
A weekly close above $81,000 that then holds as support on the first retest would shift the setup materially. The upside target in that scenario is the $86,000–$89,000 liquidity cluster, where short-term holder supply becomes the next friction point.
Failure below $80,700 flips the structure bearish and puts the $75,000 and $73,000 demand zones back in play. This is a functional setup, but confirmation comes from holding above $81K, not just breaking it.
BTC ETF Inflows to Absorb the Long-Term Holder Distribution
MicroStrategy’s continued accumulation posture and BlackRock and Fidelity ETF net positive inflows provide a structural bid that did not exist in prior cycles. Spot CVD surged 199.1% in the week preceding the $81K touch, showing high-conviction spot buying.
But Bitcoin ETF inflows have shown signs of stalling at zero net flows since the October peak, and the crypto market distribution dynamic becomes dangerous if that trend does not reverse. If $207 million in realized profit represents the start of sustained long-term holder selling into ETF demand, the inflows need to accelerate materially to prevent price compression.
Watch the 30-day Bitcoin ETF inflow average over the next two weeks. A return to net positive weekly flows above $500 million would confirm that institutional absorption is outpacing long-term holder distribution.
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