Bitcoin Market Cycles and BTC Rallies Are Outdated

Leading crypto analysts and asset management industry experts acknowledge that traditional Bitcoin cycles have lost their relevance. In their view, the market no longer follows former patterns due to deep structural changes and fundamental shifts in investment logic.

Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, publicly admitted that his previously proposed Bitcoin cycle theory no longer works and can’t serve as a basis for BTC price forecasts. He promised to rely solely on data going forward, abandoning outdated models.

According to Ju, the old mechanism — “buy when whales accumulate, sell when retail joins” — no longer applies, as old major players are selling BTC to new long-term institutional holders. “Trading feels pointless. Holders now outnumber traders,” Ju concluded.

Ju’s colleague at CryptoQuant, Burak Kesmeci, also confirmed a shift in asset ownership structure, noting a decrease in retail investor share since 2023 and growth in whale accumulation in 2024.

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, supported the conclusions about the irrelevance of Bitcoin’s four-year cycles. In his opinion, the key market forces that shaped previous cyclicality have weakened. In particular, halvings no longer act as growth triggers since their effect is offset by constant capital inflows from institutional investors. Moreover, systemic risks are reduced thanks to improved regulation and an increased share of major market participants.

Analysts predict that by 2045, around 50% of all Bitcoin supply will be held on corporate balance sheets.

One of the main long-term factors influencing Bitcoin’s price and marking a shift in market liquidity formation, Hougan named the mass transition of capital into spot Bitcoin ETFs. He emphasized that financial institutions are just beginning to participate in this process, with Wall Street investment volumes potentially reaching hundreds of billions of dollars over the next five–ten years. According to Hougan, regulatory support, including the adoption of the GENIUS Act, will facilitate this growth.

According to SoSoValue data, as of July 28, total inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $54.82 billion.

Hougan also noted changes in macroeconomic correlations. Unlike in 2018 and 2022, Bitcoin now responds positively to Federal Reserve rate hikes. He forecasted steady asset growth in 2026, characterizing it as a “sustained steady boom” rather than a supercycle.

Mitchell Askew, Analyst at Blockware, went even further, stating that the era of “parabolic” rallies and “devastating” bear cycles is over. In his view, Bitcoin before and after the ETF launch are two different assets. He believes BTC will reach $1 million in the next ten years, but the path will alternate between growth phases and consolidation, without sharp price spikes. Askew expects this new dynamic to push out short-term players and create a market resilient to panic.

This view was supported by Eric Balchunas, Analyst at Bloomberg, who highlighted that after BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF application and SEC approval of spot BTC ETFs, the price rose about 250% without deep drawdowns. He added that reduced Bitcoin volatility was a key factor attracting large investors and increasing the likelihood of BTC being recognized as a settlement asset.

Meanwhile, analysts at the global financial corporation Citigroup shared forecasts for this year, predicting Bitcoin could reach $135,000. In the most optimistic scenario, BTC prices could rise to $199,000. The main drivers of growth cited by experts include: