Bitcoin’s current price action may be flashing a familiar signal, according to Bitwise Europe’s head of research, André Dragosch.
Key Takeaways:
- Bitwise Europe’s research chief, André Dragosch, says Bitcoin now shows a COVID-era risk-reward profile.
- He argues BTC is already pricing in a recession-like outlook after steep sell-offs and heavy liquidations.
- Dragosch expects global growth to rebound as past stimulus feeds through, potentially lifting Bitcoin next.
In a recent post on X, Dragosch said the market is beginning to resemble the extreme risk-reward environment seen during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic.
“The last time I saw such an asymmetric risk-reward was during COVID,” Dragosch wrote in a post on X on Friday, pointing to March 2020 when Bitcoin collapsed from about $8,000 to below $5,000 as panic swept through global markets.
Bitwise Analyst: Bitcoin Now Trading Like a Global Downturn Is Underway
Dragosch argued that today’s setup feels similar, not because of a health crisis, but because Bitcoin is once again trading as if a deep downturn is already here.
He said the cryptocurrency appears to be “pricing in” what he described as the most bearish global growth outlook since 2022, a period dominated by aggressive rate tightening from the US Federal Reserve and the shock failure of FTX.
“Bitcoin is essentially pricing in a recessionary growth environment,” he said, adding that the market has likely absorbed “a lot of the bad news” already.
Recent price action supports the view that sentiment has weakened sharply. Bitcoin is down more than 17% over the past 30 days, according to CoinMarketCap.
This is probably the most important work I’ve done on #Bitcoin & Macro so far.
It involves a lot of computation and is somewhat complex – because financial markets are complex at the end of the day.
The question investors constantly face is:
“𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝗱 𝗶𝗻… pic.twitter.com/TUaFGM5SAT— André Dragosch, PhD
(@Andre_Dragosch) November 28, 2025
After hitting an all-time high of $125,100 on Oct. 5, the asset slid into a sustained pullback following a $19 billion liquidation wave on Oct. 10. The drop came days after Donald Trump announced sweeping new tariffs on Chinese imports.
Momentum deteriorated further in mid-November when Bitcoin slipped below $100,000, a level many traders viewed as psychological support.
Although the price briefly dipped under $90,000 on Nov. 20, buyers quickly stepped in, fueling hopes that the floor may be forming.
Dragosch believes the pessimism could be misplaced. He argues that global growth may soon improve as prior monetary stimulus works its way through the system, a pattern similar to the post-COVID expansion.
“I genuinely think we’re staring at a similar macro setup right now,” he wrote.
Cathie Wood Calls Liquidity Rebound for Crypto
As reported, ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood has forecasted that the liquidity squeeze hitting crypto and AI markets will reverse within weeks, driven by three Federal Reserve policy shifts expected before year-end.
Her firm continues aggressively buying crypto equities during the downturn, deploying over $93 million in a single day this week across beaten-down digital asset stocks.
Speaking during ARK’s November market webinar, she identified three temporary liquidity constraints she expects to ease rapidly through Federal Reserve action and reopened government spending.
Wood expects the Federal Reserve to end quantitative tightening at its December 10 meeting, immediately easing one pressure point.
The government shutdown that caused the Treasury General Account cash buildup has concluded, returning funds to circulation.
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