Bitwise CIO Declares “Four-Year Crypto Cycle Is Dead”—Is a Steady, Record-Breaking Boom Next?

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan says the long-observed four-year crypto cycle may no longer apply to the current market.

In a recent discussion with Bitcoin advocate Kyle Chassé and Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart, Hougan argued that the historical pattern is breaking down, and a longer, more sustained growth phase could be on the horizon.

Traditionally, crypto markets have followed a four-year rhythm driven by Bitcoin’s halving events, shifting interest rates, and the cyclical blow-ups that have rattled the industry. But Hougan believes these drivers are now losing influence.

Matt Hougan Predicts ‘Sustained Boom’ for Crypto as Traditional Cycles Fade

In a follow-up post on X, Hougan pointed to the diminishing impact of the Bitcoin halving, noting that each one has half the effect of the last. “The halving is half as important every four years,” he said.

The rationale is simple: as block rewards diminish in absolute terms, their effect on overall market supply shrinks relative to the growing scale of the crypto economy. As such, halvings no longer serve as the singular driving force behind bullish market cycles.

He also noted how interest rate cycles, once a severe headwind for crypto in downturns like 2018 and 2022, are now acting as tailwinds, buoyed by a more stable and accommodative macro environment.

Hougan further emphasized that the risk of blowups, which had once controlled cycles in the crypto space, has been greatly reduced due to the shift to improved regulation and growing institutional involvement.

In place of the old cycle, Hougan sees new forces taking hold, ones that move on longer timelines and aren’t tied to halving years.

At the top of the list is the growing inflow of capital into crypto-related ETFs. That wave, which started in 2024, is just beginning, he said, and could last five to ten years.

Institutional adoption is another key trend. Hougan said pensions, endowments, and national account platforms are only starting to embrace crypto exposure. He expects that trend to accelerate as more crypto ETFs win approval.

He also pointed to progress on the regulatory front. In his view, January 2025 marked the beginning of a new era of policymaking for the industry. Hougan cited the passage of the GENIUS Act earlier this month as a major shift.

The legislation has opened the door for Wall Street to begin building financial products around crypto, he said, predicting that banks will invest billions over the coming years.

In his post, Hougan added that new developments such as the rise of crypto treasury firms holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets are shaping a different kind of cycle. He believes these emerging patterns won’t follow the sharp booms and busts of the past.

“I think it’s more of a sustained steady boom than a supercycle,” Hougan wrote. “The long-term pro-crypto forces will overwhelm the classic four-year cycle forces.”

Looking ahead, he believes 2026 will be a strong year for crypto, although he warned that volatility is still expected.

Bitwise CIO Sees Bitcoin on Path to $1M Amid Policy Shifts and Growing Institutional Support

This is not the first time Hougan has believed that Bitcoin has entered a new phase of institutional adoption, marked by major shifts in finance and policy.

On December 13, 2024, Hougan pointed to several key developments signaling this shift: BlackRock’s suggested 2% portfolio allocation to Bitcoin, the rapid uptake of spot Bitcoin ETFs, and growing public support from financial leaders like Ray Dalio.

He also noted the increasing political acceptance of crypto, noting President Donald Trump’s vocal backing of Bitcoin and his appearance at a major industry event.

Forward to this year, Hougan predicted Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, driven by demand from sovereign wealth funds, public companies, and institutional investors.

“The final barrier fell when governments became holders,” he said. “Bitcoin’s survival was no longer in doubt; growth became the focus.”

Hougan maintains that Bitcoin is now in a new phase, less speculative and more institutional and structural.

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