FOMC September 2026 Odds for a Rate Hike Surpass 50%

Traders using the CME’s FedWatch tool put the FOMC September 2026 odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the Federal Reserve’s September 16 meeting at nearly 56%, CNBC reported.

The change followed Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s keynote speech at the central bank’s Jackson Hole symposium and left the September FOMC decision looking closely contested in market pricing.

For Bitcoin and other crypto assets, the immediate development is a shift in the interest-rate backdrop rather than evidence of a confirmed price response.

CNBC’s reporting documents changing rate expectations and a move in short-term Treasury yields, but it does not establish a corresponding move in Bitcoin, altcoins, crypto derivatives, or liquidations.

FOMC September 2026 Odds: A Jackson Hole Speech Reset Rate Expectations

The repricing was reflected across several market-based measures. Kalshi traders assigned a 48% probability to a quarter-point increase, while Polymarket traders indicated 49% odds that the Fed would raise rates. Fed funds futures traders, as measured through CME FedWatch, saw nearly a 56% chance of a quarter-point hike.

Before Warsh’s speech, odds that the Fed would keep rates unchanged in September were nearly 70%, CNBC reported. The article also noted that investors had previously been more focused on the possibility of a hike after the Fed’s July meeting, when three members of the Federal Open Market Committee disagreed with the decision to leave rates steady and argued that rates needed to move higher in response to elevated inflation.

Rate-hike odds then declined after a weaker-than-expected July employment report showed that the U.S. lost jobs and inflation cooled while remaining above the Fed’s 2% target. In his Jackson Hole remarks, Warsh said that better-than-expected summer inflation readings did not demonstrate that underlying trends had meaningfully improved. He said the central bank needed confidence that underlying inflation was moving toward its objective clearly and quickly enough.

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What a Coin-Flip Fed Means for Bitcoin And What It Doesn’t Prove

The available evidence supports reassessing September policy expectations, not a settled conclusion about crypto-market consequences. Bitcoin may remain relevant to traders monitoring broader risk sentiment, but the cited reporting does not show that the change in Fed probabilities has already produced a specific Bitcoin-market outcome.

Short-term yields did respond to the speech. CNBC reported that the 2-year Treasury yield, which closely follows short-term Fed rate decisions, reached its highest level since late July. That reaction shows that interest-rate markets were responding to the possibility of a September move.

The inflation backdrop remains central to the debate. In an Aug. 5 speech, Fed Governor Lisa D. Cook said the personal consumption expenditures price index rose 3.7% in the 12 months through June, while core prices rose 3.3%.

Cook described inflation as too high and said she was prepared to support a rate increase if necessary, while also noting that disinflationary forces could move inflation toward the Fed’s target without an increase.

Cook also said the June unemployment rate was 4.2% and characterized the labor market as stable in a low-hire, low-fire environment. Her assessment illustrates why incoming inflation and employment data remain important to the policy discussion ahead of the meeting.

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