As Bitcoin finds strength bolstered by the US Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates, one analyst believes we are on the cusp of a bull market.
In a September 19 X post, popular analyst Crypto Rover cited historical post-halving trends as grounds that a “Bitcoin bull market should be starting in 15-20 days” as we approach the end of an accumulation phase.
This sentiment echoed previous comments by CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, who noted that past post-halving rallies have typically started in the fourth quarter of each halving year.
In the last #Bitcoin halving cycle, the bull rally began in Q4. Whales won't let Q4 be boring with a flat YoY performance. pic.twitter.com/LIWH53OpkD
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) August 21, 2024
Young Ju further emphasized that, in his view, “whales won’t let Q4 be boring with a flat YoY performance,” implying that significant market movements are expected as we approach the end of the year.
These combined technical and historical factors have fueled speculation that Q4 2024 could be a pivotal period for Bitcoin, with a six-figure Bitcoin “still in play” as we move toward 2025.
Big Bull Market Catalyst: The US Election
This forecast aligns with what is expected to be a monumental catalyst: the US presidential election, which is expected to bring new all-time highs due to “positive drivers dominating regardless of the election outcome.”
The elected candidate is expected to bring a departure from the widely critiqued Biden administration’s approach to regulating cryptocurrency, creating a more favorable environment for the asset class.
Former President Donald Trump has been vocal about making the US the global “crypto capital,” while Vice President Kamala Harris has been more reserved. However, reports suggest she may adopt a more balanced regulatory approach.
Ripple’s Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty noted the importance of a new regulatory framework for cryptocurrency in the US.
“The rest of the world has moved on; they’ve recognized the value of the technology, the jobs, the tax dollars, the innovation that it can bring to the economy,” he emphasized.
A Looming Threat: US Fed Rate Cut Fuels Recession Fears
This optimism is met with some skepticism among analysts, who cite the US Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points as a potential prelude to a looming recession.
The decision has been interpreted as a “crisis” move to control the weakening job market.
Historically, significant rate cuts have signaled economic downturns. The last two instances of 50+ basis point rate cuts—on January 3, 2001, and September 18, 2007—preceded recessions, with the S&P 500 seeing 39% and 54% declines, respectively.
Last 2 times the Fed’s first cut was 50+ bps:
Jan 3, 2001
– S&P 500 fell ~39% next 448 days
– Unemployment rose another 2.1%
– Recession
Sep 18, 2007
– S&P 500 fell ~54% next 372 days
– Unemployment rose another 5.3%
– RecessionSep 18, 2024
– ?
– ?
– ? pic.twitter.com/j9ntj5bnxz— Geiger Capital (@Geiger_Capital) September 18, 2024
Given this historical context, some analysts argue that the current rate cut could signal underlying economic weaknesses rather than serve as a straightforward catalyst for a bull market.
While the rate cut might initially boost Bitcoin and other notable cryptocurrencies, the potential for a broader economic downturn could temper long-term optimism.
10x Research has cautioned that a 50 basis point cut could “signal deeper concerns to the markets,” suggesting that it reflects deeper issues rather than merely addressing economic conditions. This could reduce investor exposure to risk assets like Bitcoin.
Some analysts speculate that the potential implications could spark a 15-20% drawdown to new lows once the initial buzz wears off and worries about economic slowdown take hold.
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