This week in Washington and one day of ETF flows explain why the calendar suddenly matters. Meta AI predicts the next three months will be unusually consequential, and it projects Bitcoin to range from $78,000 to $92,000 by the end of 2026, with $85,000 as the base case.
Today (September 15) is the first trigger. The Senate is expected to test whether the Clarity Act can clear the 60-vote threshold. The passage would remove a major U.S. policy overhang. That alone changes the risk calculus for allocators who have stayed on the sidelines.
ARMA is the bigger Bitcoin-specific catalyst. The House proposal would authorize Treasury purchases of up to 1 million BTC over five years.
It also requires a 20-year federal hold on those coins. Buying at that scale with a two-decade lockup would remove supply permanently, not temporarily.
Flows are already turning. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $159.9M to start the week on September 14, a strong start as we move through the month.
The bear case paints a different picture. Renewed ETF outflows are the first pressure point.
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The weekly chart shows a cycle that has already peaked. Bitcoin topped near $126,000 in mid-2025 and has trended lower since.
Late 2025 broke the structure, taking the price from $120,000 toward $84,000. Early 2026 delivered the deepest leg down near $58,000.
Spring produced a recovery attempt to roughly $82,000. That failed by June, and the price returned to the low $60Ks.
Recent weeks have built a shallow base. Higher lows are forming, though without any strong upward push behind them.
The weekly close reads $63,078, down 2.74% and $1,780. The weekly range covered $62,470 to $65,333.
Support sits at $72,000, then $68,000 and $66,000, as the zone Meta AI flags. Resistance appears at $80,000, then $82,000 and $87,000.
RSI reads 39.06 with its signal line just above at 39.32. The two lines have converged almost exactly, separated by roughly a quarter point.
That reading sits well below the midline and is near oversold. Momentum is weak, though the flattening suggests the decline is losing force.
Meta AI predicts that the base case sits +35% above this level. September 15 is the first date that will tell you whether the market starts pricing it in.
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