Bitcoin’s latest pullback has sparked fresh debate across the market, but macro analyst Lyn Alden says fears of a deep collapse are misplaced.
Key Takeaways:
- Lyn Alden says Bitcoin is unlikely to face a major crash because the market hasn’t reached euphoric conditions.
- She argues the traditional four-year cycle is weakening as institutional demand and macro forces reshape Bitcoin’s rhythm.
- Alden expects Bitcoin to reclaim $100,000 by 2026, cautioning that investors shouldn’t assume every downturn leads to an immediate bull run.
Speaking on the What Bitcoin Did podcast, Alden argued that the current environment lacks the hallmarks of a major washout.
“We haven’t hit euphoric levels in this cycle; therefore, there is less of a reason to expect a kind of major capitulation,” she said, noting that Bitcoin’s trajectory is being shaped less by its traditional halving rhythm and more by broader macro forces.
Alden: Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Is Losing Its Grip
Alden pushed back on the idea that the well-known four-year cycle still dictates Bitcoin’s path.
Instead, she suggested that growing institutional interest and shifting economic conditions may stretch the cycle longer than many expect.
Her comments echo recent remarks from Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, who said the market may be entering “a good few years” rather than a compressed boom-bust pattern.
Alden argued that markets rarely deliver the extremes investors prepare for. “It’s usually not as good as people expect and it’s usually not as bad as people expect,” she said.
The debate comes at a tense moment for traders. Bitcoin has been in retreat since setting an all-time high of $125,100 on Oct. 5, sliding to $80,700 on Thursday before rebounding to around $85,700, per CoinMarketCap data.
Sentiment has cooled sharply as earlier predictions for a strong year-end finish fade. Some analysts, including BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, had predicted a run toward $250,000.
The recent downturn has fueled fresh speculation about when the next surge might begin, but Alden cautioned against assuming that every dip precedes a guaranteed breakout.
“People get in their mindset where they are owed a bull market. No one is owed a bull market,” she said.
Looking ahead, Alden expects Bitcoin to reclaim $100,000 in 2026 and either print new highs that year or in 2027.
Coinbase says rate-cut bets were “mispriced”
In a note on Friday, Coinbase Institutional argued that futures markets have been underestimating the chances of a rate reduction.
“We believe the odds for a rate cut are actually mispriced,” the firm wrote, citing new tariff research, private-sector data, and real-time inflation trackers.
Coinbase said traders shifted from expecting a 25 bps cut to assuming the Fed would hold rates steady after inflation reports earlier this quarter raised concerns.
However, tariff effects, the firm noted, often reduce inflation and raise unemployment in the short term, effectively acting as a drag on demand and strengthening the case for cuts.
As reported, Bitcoin may remain stuck between $60,000 and $80,000 through the end of December if the Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged at next month’s FOMC meeting, according to new analysis from XWIN Research Japan.
Analysts say a cautious Fed, still facing inflation near 3%, would likely maintain tight conditions, which historically weigh heavily on equities and crypto.
If no cut arrives, XWIN expects the market to remain range-bound, with risk appetite muted until macro clarity returns.
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