Mike Novogratz’s Galaxy Digital is in talks with prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi about becoming a liquidity provider, as on-chain betting on real-world events draws more attention from both retail traders and Wall Street.
Galaxy, which has built its brand around providing crypto infrastructure and services to institutional clients, would act as a market-maker on the platforms, posting regular bids and offers to deepen trading.
Novogratz told Bloomberg in a recent interview that the firm is “doing some small-scale experimenting with market-making on prediction markets, but I think you’ll eventually see us providing broader liquidity.”
Prediction Markets Surge As Traders Bet On Real-World Outcomes
Prediction markets have grown rapidly in recent months, offering binary contracts tied to outcomes such as elections, sports results and key economic events. Traders buy “yes” or “no” shares on specific questions, with prices reflecting the crowd’s implied probability that a given outcome will occur.
Bloomberg reports that Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz says the firm is in talks with Polymarket and Kalshi to provide liquidity in prediction markets, having already begun small-scale market-making experiments with plans to expand. Jump Trading has also quietly started making…
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The regulatory backdrop remains patchy. Some US states argue that prediction markets fall under gambling laws, while at the federal level the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which oversees event contracts, has so far not stepped in to shut down the activity on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.
Unlike traditional sportsbooks, which take the opposite side of customer bets, Polymarket and Kalshi run largely peer-to-peer order books. To buy “yes” on a market, a trader needs someone willing to hold the corresponding “no” position, which makes liquidity providers and active market makers central to the user experience.
Both platforms have rolled out incentive schemes that reward participants who post orders in specific markets.
Major Trading Firms Start Testing The Waters In Prediction Markets
For years, event markets were too small to attract major trading firms. Susquehanna International Group has been one of the few players to publicly acknowledge its role as a market maker on Kalshi.
Some exchanges also operate internal market-making entities to meet demand. Kalshi runs a unit called Kalshi Trading that trades against customers. The company says the desk is walled off and has no access to non-public information generated by the exchange.
Polymarket, which originally built much of its volume outside the US, has started live testing its US exchange this month. The platform has quietly onboarded a limited group of users and is matching real trades as it prepares for a broader relaunch in the domestic betting market.
Sector Matures As Tech Platforms And Liquidity Providers Step In
Interest in wagering on real-world outcomes has risen since the last US presidential election, with traders treating prediction markets as both a speculative outlet and an informal polling tool. Liquidity from firms like Galaxy would make it easier for larger tickets to move through the order book without causing sharp price swings.
Big tech is also helping to pull the sector into the mainstream. Google Finance recently said it will begin showing live data from Polymarket and Kalshi in the coming weeks, allowing users to ask about future events and see how the crowd is pricing the odds.
For crypto natives and traditional investors alike, that kind of visibility could make prediction markets feel less like a niche experiment and more like a regular part of the market landscape.
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