Bitcoin ETFs draw $500M but weak demand leaves rebound exposed

US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds drew nearly $500 million across the last two trading sessions, giving traders their first clear fund-flow rebound in weeks even as several market gauges continued to show weak demand for the top digital asset.

The US ETF products took in $221.72 million on July 2, ending a 10-session outflow streak that had pulled about $2.73 billion from the funds.

After the US Independence Day holiday, the funds added another $265.69 million on July 6, marking their first back-to-back inflows since May.

The ETF rebound gave Bitcoin one of its strongest near-term supports after weeks in which demand from regulated funds had worked against the market. BTC price continues to show resilience around $63,000, rising 7% this month.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have become one of Bitcoin’s clearest gauges of marginal demand, with sustained inflows helping absorb supply and persistent redemptions removing a key source of steady buying.

Despite this reversal, the two-day improvement is not enough to show that investors have returned in force after the recent run of ETF outflows.

US spot buyers have yet to confirm the ETF turn

The fund rebound has not yet been matched by the spot market, where Bitcoin continues to trade at a discount on Coinbase after nearly two months of weaker US demand.

The Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks the price gap between Bitcoin on Coinbase and Binance, has remained negative for 50 consecutive days, according to Coinglass data.

The gauge is widely used as a proxy for U.S. spot demand because Coinbase is a major dollar-based venue, while Binance reflects deeper offshore liquidity.

A positive Coinbase premium usually suggests stronger buying from US-linked participants. A negative reading shows that Bitcoin is cheaper on Coinbase than on Binance, implying that domestic buyers are not bidding as aggressively as offshore traders.

That weakens the bullish interpretation of the ETF rebound. The funds have posted two positive sessions, but the broader US spot market has not yet followed with enough strength to push Coinbase back into a premium.

Historically, stronger Bitcoin advances have often coincided with sustained buying across both ETFs and spot venues.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler pointed out that Bitcoin remains in a risk-off regime, with weak inter-exchange activity through Coinbase Advanced and no sustained reversal in momentum.

According to him, the negative Coinbase premium continues to indicate weak US spot demand and persistent selling pressure.

Weak absorption is still holding back the recovery

The soft Coinbase signal is part of a broader absorption problem that has kept Bitcoin’s on-chain demand negative for most of the year.

CryptoQuant data show that Bitcoin’s apparent demand remains below zero, suggesting the market has not returned to a sustained accumulation phase.

The metric compares newly issued Bitcoin with changes in the supply that has remained inactive for more than one year. Traders use it to assess whether buyers are absorbing new, liquid supply entering the market.

The reading fell to about -275,000 BTC on June 3, its weakest level of the year. It has since recovered to about -75,000 BTC, showing that pressure has eased from the worst point of the selloff.

However, this improvement is still short of a reversal. A negative reading indicates that demand has not been strong enough to absorb available supply on a sustained basis.

So, a more durable turn would require the metric to move into positive territory and stay there, showing that accumulation is again overtaking issuance and liquid supply.

That distinction is central to the current market. Bitcoin can rise when short sellers cover, when liquidity is thin, when macro pressure eases, or when ETF flows improve for a few sessions.

A stronger trend usually needs evidence that long-term holders and fresh buyers are removing enough coins from circulation.

Exchange balances are not yet offering that evidence.

Joao Wedson, chief executive officer of Alphractal, said Bitcoin reserves on centralized exchanges are rising and that the 180-day change is nearing a positive turn. That suggests the multi-month movement of coins away from exchanges has slowed.

Exchange reserves can move for several reasons, including custody changes, collateral use, market-making, and internal exchange transfers.

Still, rising balances are watched because they can indicate that more supply is available for sale, while sustained withdrawals are usually associated with long-term accumulation.

In this market, the signal cautions against the ETF rebound. The outflow pressure through funds has eased, but the broader supply picture has not yet shown that investors are aggressively moving Bitcoin into long-term storage.

The relief trade is improving faster than the demand picture

The case for further upside now rests less on proof of renewed demand than on whether the June selloff left Bitcoin stretched enough for a relief rally to run.

Wintermute said the recent advance fits that pattern, pointing to easier macro conditions, a slightly more dovish tone around the Federal Reserve, reduced Middle East tensions and thin summer liquidity.

Those factors can lift a market that had been heavily pressured without requiring a deeper shift in investor appetite.

That reading is consistent with the rest of the data. ETF outflows have paused, but only for two sessions. Bitcoin still trades at a discount on Coinbase, apparent demand remains negative, and exchange balances have not shown the sustained decline that would indicate stronger long-term accumulation.

That leaves BTC's bullish case resting on market positioning rather than confirmed demand.

In a note shared with CryptoSlate, BlockScholes said its Risk Appetite Index, which tracks bullish and bearish momentum across major tokens including Bitcoin, ETH and Solana, rebounded after falling to -1.27 on July 3.

The firm said Bitcoin’s risk-appetite gauge has fallen below -1.2 only eight times before, with spot prices producing a median gain of 12% over the following 100 days.

That gives bulls a tactical case if broader risk conditions continue to stabilize.

BlockScholes also said a rotation out of artificial-intelligence-linked equities and into broader risk assets could eventually support crypto, particularly if investors continue to take profits in semiconductors, megacap technology stocks and pre-IPO shares.

But positioning can only carry the market so far. A stronger recovery would still need repeated ETF inflows, a rebound in the Coinbase premium and on-chain evidence that available supply is being absorbed rather than moving back toward exchanges.

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