Bitcoin (BTC) must hold the $114,000 level to attract investors’ confidence and new liquidity to breach the narrow $110,000-$116,000 range.
According to a Sept. 11 report by Glassnode, BTC has been stuck in the “air gap” range following its mid-August peak. The trading range threatens to stall the current rally.
In the current landscape, Bitcoin faces mounting pressure from conflicting forces as recent buyers realize losses while earlier investors take profits.
The report noted three distinct investor cohorts shaping current price action. The first are top-buyers over the past three months holding positions near $113,800, while the second consists of dip-buyers clustering around $112,800.
The third cohort, comprising short-term holders from the past six months, is anchored near $108,300, creating defined support and resistance zones.
The rebound from $108,000 exposed underlying market stress. Seasoned short-term holders realized approximately $189 million in daily profits, representing 79% of all short-term holder gains. The investors who bought during the February-May dips used recent strength to exit positions profitably.
Loss realization weighs on recovery
Recent top buyers compounded selling pressure by realizing daily losses of up to $152 million during the same period. This behavior mirrors stress patterns observed in April 2024 and January 2025, when peak buyers capitulated under similar circumstances.
Net Realized Profit as a share of market cap peaked at 0.065% during August’s rally before trending lower. While current levels remain elevated, the metric suggests inflows provide diminishing support compared to earlier phases of the cycle.
US spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) net flows dropped sharply since early August, hovering near 500 BTC daily, compared to the robust inflows that fueled previous rallies.
The slowdown removes a critical pillar of institutional demand that drove Bitcoin’s ascent through 2024.
Derivatives providing stability
With spot flows weakening, derivatives markets assumed greater importance in price formation. Volume Delta Bias recovered during the bounce from $108,000, indicating seller exhaustion across major futures venues, including Binance and Bybit.
The 3-month annualized futures basis remains below 10% despite higher prices, reflecting measured demand for leverage without speculative excess.
Perpetual futures volume stays muted, consistent with post-euphoric market phases rather than aggressive speculation.
Bitcoin options open interest reached record highs as institutions increasingly use derivatives for risk management through protective puts and covered calls. Meanwhile, implied volatility continues to decline, signaling market maturation and reduced speculative positioning.
With these metrics as a backdrop, reclaiming $114,000 decisively would restore top-buyer profitability and attract fresh institutional capital.
Failure to hold this level risks renewed pressure on short-term holders, with $108,300 and ultimately $93,000 serving as critical downside targets where major supply clusters await.
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