Bitcoin (BTC) investors have kept their coins off exchanges in recent weeks, even as market-wide profitability climbed to levels that typically trigger distribution, according to a July 1 report from Glassnode.
Bitcoin fell from $106,000 to $99,000 during last week’s Israel-Iran flare-up, but buyers defended the short-term holder cost basis at $98,300 and pushed the market back to $107,000 after a cease-fire was announced.
The report referred to the bounce as a “constructive signal” because it occurred at a level that historically separates bullish from bearish regimes. The episode left the market cap at nearly $2.13 trillion and the realized cap at $958 billion, resulting in approximately $1.2 trillion in unrealized profit across the network.
Profitability peaks, yet realized gains fade
The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio indicates that the average coin now boasts a 125% paper gain, which is well above neutral but below the March reading of 180%.
Despite the incentive, realized profit averaged just $872 million per day, far below the $2.8 billion and $3.2 billion spikes recorded when Bitcoin first reached $73,000 in March 2024 and $107,000 in December 2024.
The report observed that both long- and short-term holders dialed back spending after a brief uptick near the latest all-time high, sending the sell-side risk ratio toward low-activity territory.
Coins dormant for at least 155 days rose to an all-time high of 14.7 million BTC, confirming that maturation flows outweighed distribution.
Glassnode’s “liveliness” gauge, which compares coin-day creation to destruction, continued to decline. The report noted that this pattern reinforces the view that holding remains the dominant strategy.
Furthermore, the analysis highlighted that wallets that bought during January’s breakout above $100,000 still retain most of those coins, underscoring resilient sentiment under the surface.
Liquidity reads neutral to positive
The stablecoin supply ratio oscillates near its baseline, indicating that the buying power in dollar-pegged tokens roughly aligns with the available Bitcoin supply.
Exchange buying-power data show a rotation of stablecoin capital into significant assets over the past month, and net inflows to US spot Bitcoin ETFs climbed to a seven-day average of $298 million.
The report stated that these flows indicate “growing institutional engagement at scale,” complementing the reluctance of existing holders to part with their coins.
Glassnode concluded that a fresh price expansion may be required to entice meaningful selling, as current levels fail to generate sufficient profit-taking to absorb new demand.
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