Bitcoin has rebounded from an early-February slide that briefly pushed it to $60,000 and produced its most oversold signal on record, easing some of the pressure that has weighed on crypto markets.
According to CryptoSlate's data, the flagship digital asset has steadied in recent days and briefly approached the $70,000 mark before settling around $67,300 as of press time
This price action helped improve the broader market sentiment because it coincided with a three-day stretch of net inflows into US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), their strongest run this month.
At the same time, the market is showing signs of improved spot demand for the first time since late November.
As a result, there has been renewed market speculation that BTC could recover to $90,000 in March, though derivatives positioning suggests traders still see that outcome as a long shot.
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Options are pricing recovery, but not conviction
Bitcoin’s options market suggests traders are still paying up for protection, even as chatter builds around a quick rebound.
On Deribit, the March 27 $90,000 call recently traded around $522, which translates to less than a 6% implied probability of Bitcoin reaching that level by late March under standard Black-Scholes modeling.
Meanwhile, the March 27 $50,000 put was near $1,380, implying roughly a 20% chance of a deeper drop.
CME Group data points to the same caution. On Feb. 5, 25-delta implied volatility rose to 75% for calls and 95% for puts, both the highest since 2022, while the 25-delta risk reversal slid to minus 19.34, its lowest level since 2022.
That mix is typical of a market still buying downside insurance and not one convinced the selloff is over.
At the same time, derivatives positioning shows why the recovery narrative has not vanished.
CME said open interest tied to March expirations skewed bullish, with about $660 million in call open interest versus $240 million in put open interest, a 3-to-1 ratio.
Derive, a crypto options platform, echoed that read in a Feb. 27 email statement to CryptoSlate.
The firm said Bitcoin volatility has eased back into the 50% range, a level more consistent with consolidation than panic, while 25-delta skew improved from about minus 15% to around minus 7%, suggesting traders have become less defensive.
Across the March 27 expiry, the market shows call accumulation at $80,000 and $90,000 alongside meaningful put interest at $60,000 and $55,000, signaling investors want upside exposure without dropping hedges.
In conclusion, the firm stated:
“The data points toward a market attempting to form a base. Volatility compression, improving sentiment metrics and increasingly structured positioning suggest traders are transitioning away from defensive panic toward conditional optimism, preparing for upside participation while remaining protected against another leg lower.”
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ETF flows still hold the key to any fast move
If Bitcoin is to move beyond a slow recovery, the exchange-traded fund market remains the clearest source of additional demand. That is also where the rebound case faces its biggest test.
Data from SoSoValue show US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded $2.6 billion in net outflows since the start of 2026.
That marks a sharp shift from the same period a year earlier and suggests one of Bitcoin’s most visible institutional demand channels has been subtracting from momentum rather than adding to it.
The issue for bullish investors is not a single weak week. It is the risk that a sustained stretch of negative flows can limit rallies, weaken momentum, and leave spot buyers to absorb selling pressure without help from one of the market’s largest sources of demand.
However, there are early signs that demand may be returning.
SoSoValue data show that spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted more than $1 billion in net inflows over the last three trading sessions this week, even as BTC continues to trade in a tight range.
That represents a notable improvement after a prolonged period of outflows.
Still, three days of inflows do not establish a durable trend, especially if Bitcoin is to make a credible push toward $90,000 in March.
For that to happen, the ETF market would likely need several more strong sessions in close succession, enough to absorb overhead supply and help create the kind of feedback loop that draws in additional spot demand.
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Even if flows improve, $90,000 is not a clean-air target.
Glassnode previously noted that Bitcoin remains in what it called a defensive phase, with selling pressure still being absorbed in a $60,000 to $72,000 demand corridor.
The firm also pointed to large supply clusters overhead, at $82,000 to $97,000 and again at $100,000 to $117,000. Those levels reflect where many holders are sitting on unrealized losses and may be more willing to sell into relief rallies.
In that context, $90,000 is not just a psychological marker. It sits inside a heavier supply band that the market would need to work through.
Moreover, Glassnode’s realized price, a widely watched proxy for the market’s aggregate cost basis, was $54,614.94 as of Feb. 26.
That does not imply Bitcoin must return to that level. However, it shows the distance between current prices and a deeper valuation reference, which tends to draw attention during periods of stress.
In the near term, recent efforts to retake $70,000 have met visible profit-taking.
Glassnode said smoothed net realized profit and loss rose above $5 million an hour on Feb. 25 as Bitcoin climbed to a peak near $69,400 before stalling.
The firm said profit-taking continued to absorb momentum around the $70,000 level, reinforcing the picture of a market recovering in a thin-liquidity environment where even modest bursts of selling can interrupt advances.
March is packed with catalysts, not certainty
The March calendar also argues against treating $90,000 as a straightforward call.
This is because Bitcoin will face a series of macroeconomic tests that could shape demand for risk assets.
For context, the US jobs report for February is due March 6. The February consumer price index data is scheduled for release on March 11. The Federal Reserve meets March 17-18. The January Personal Income and Outlays report, which includes the PCE inflation gauge, is due March 25.
Those events matter because Bitcoin remains sensitive to interest-rate expectations, inflation data, and broader liquidity conditions.
Reuters reported this week that the Fed is expected to keep its benchmark rate in a 3.50% to 3.75% range at its March meeting, as recent shifts in market expectations reduced confidence in early rate cuts.
That backdrop is not necessarily negative for Bitcoin. But it also does not provide the kind of clear easing signal that would make a rapid climb to $90,000 look likely.
Taken together, those conditions help explain the market’s cautious optimism.
However, there is a credible path to higher prices in March. Softer inflation data, a less restrictive tone from the Fed, several sessions of strong ETF inflows, and further short covering in derivatives could push Bitcoin sharply higher.
The March options positioning shows traders see that scenario. However, the continued demand for downside protection shows they are not fully convinced.
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