Bitcoin (BTC) holding patterns suggest a potential resumption of the uptrend starting in late September 2025, as long-term accumulation data reveals evolving market dynamics driven by institutional adoption and policy catalysts.
CryptoQuant Korean Community Manager Crypto Dan’s analysis reveals that the current cycle differs from previous bull markets due to extended timeframes and flattening momentum slopes.
The percentage of Bitcoin held for over one year based on realized market cap demonstrates the current cycle’s unique characteristics compared to previous phases.
Unlike past cycles, where sharp surges led to rapid peaks, institutional adoption through spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and nation-state purchases has extended the bull market’s duration while gradually flattening the uptrend’s slope.
Market momentum faces periodic stalls when capital flows shift toward altcoins, a pattern that has repeated multiple times during the current cycle. It contrasts with 2023-2024, when Bitcoin dominated market attention before capital began migrating to alternative cryptocurrencies.
Favorable backdrop
Crypto Dan noted that September rate cut expectations align with Bitcoin’s seasonal patterns and technical indicators.
Polymarket traders currently place 81% odds on a 25 basis point Federal Reserve rate cut at the September FOMC meeting, providing a potential catalyst for risk asset appreciation.
The analysis also anticipates additional momentum from the expected approvals of altcoin ETFs in October.
Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart stated in April that most crypto ETF applications face final deadlines in October, making it the likely approval month for spot altcoin products.
This timeline creates a favorable policy window for crypto markets as they enter the fall season.
Combined with seasonal patterns that show Bitcoin’s strength in autumn months, the convergence of dovish monetary policy and regulatory clarity positions the market for renewed upward momentum following the current consolidation phase.
Extended cycle characteristics
Institutional adoption fundamentally altered Bitcoin’s cycle dynamics compared to the retail-driven phases that preceded it.
The introduction of spot ETFs and corporate treasury adoption created more stable demand flows but extended the cycle’s duration. The analysis suggested these structural changes support sustained bull market conditions despite periodic consolidation phases.
Given the favorable policy backdrop and development of institutional infrastructure, any additional corrections during the transition period could present attractive opportunities for accumulation.
The combination of rate cuts, ETF approvals, and seasonal factors supports an optimistic market outlook for fall and winter 2025.
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