Bitcoin’s bullish momentum seeking ‘euphoric’ market shift – Glassnode

Bitcoin (BTC) is showing the first signs of positive price momentum since June, as it attempts to convincingly break the $69,000 price zone and shift to a “euphoric bull market.”

According to Glassnode’s latest “Week Onchain Newsletter,” the recent rally has seen Bitcoin’s spot price break through key technical and on-chain price levels, pushing many investor positions back into unrealized profits and providing a potential boost to market sentiment.

The AVIV Ratio, a key on-chain metric assessing active investors’ unrealized gains and losses, remains constructive, suggesting that profitability has remained robust even as the market faced challenges.

This ratio also hints at potential room for further growth as Bitcoin attempts to transition from an “enthusiastic bull market” regime into a “euphoric bull market,” which would be marked by a sustained break above its previous all-time high of $69,000.

Reclaiming key indicators

The recent price surge saw Bitcoin move past both the 200-day and 111-day moving averages (DMA), which are historically important markers for investors.

Furthermore, the report highlighted that the 365-day simple moving average (SMA) has acted as critical support during macroeconomic events, reinforcing the market’s resilience as Bitcoin maintains its upward trend.

According to Fibonacci retracement levels, Bitcoin has remained within an atypical trading range for several months, indicating a period of consolidation rather than the more typical dramatic highs or sell-offs.

Glassnode noted that net capital inflows have accelerated, increasing by $21.8 billion over the last 30 days, pushing Bitcoin’s realized cap to a record $646 billion.

Institutional back at ‘cash and carry’ strategies

Bitcoin’s derivative markets are also showing strong growth, with open interest in both perpetual and fixed-term futures contracts reaching a new all-time high of $32.9 billion.

The increasing presence of institutional investors is highlighted by the CME futures contracts, which recorded $11.3 billion in open interest. These products offer institutional players regulated derivative exposure, allowing them to participate in yield-generating strategies such as cash-and-carry trades.

Despite this institutional activity, futures trading volumes remain somewhat subdued, signaling that the market has yet to experience a significant surge in overall trading activity.

Nevertheless, with yields from cash and carry strategies now around 9.6%, nearly double the yield from short-term US Treasuries, institutional interest in Bitcoin is expected to rise further, particularly as the Federal Reserve signals potential rate cuts in the months ahead.

Additionally, the ongoing inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and CME futures markets further suggest that institutional traders are increasingly adopting long-spot and short-futures strategies to capture yield. This could expand Bitcoin’s liquidity and strengthen its position as a key asset in both retail and institutional portfolios.

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