StanChart updates Bitcoin price projection to $200k by 2025-end

Standard Chartered believes Bitcoin (BTC) could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025 as institutional investments and anticipated regulatory shifts solidify its position as a mainstream asset.

In its latest report, the bank attributed Bitcoin’s surge past $100,000 this year to unprecedented institutional inflows and projected a clear path for further growth.

Growing interest

StanChart’s head of digital assets research, Geoffrey Kendrick, highlighted that institutions acquired 683,000 BTC in 2024, with a significant amount — 245,000 BTC — purchased in the weeks following the US election, a period marked by heightened optimism about regulatory reform under the incoming Trump administration.

MicroStrategy alone accounted for 213,000 BTC, significantly exceeding its annual target, while US spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) added 470,000 BTC to their portfolios.

According to Kendrick:

“MicroStrategy’s pace of accumulation has exceeded expectations, and its commitment to raising $42 billion over three years indicates further significant inflows in 2025.”

Kendrick said he anticipates regulatory changes in early 2025, including a repeal of SAB 121, the passage of stablecoin legislation, and leadership changes at the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), as pivotal for unlocking additional institutional participation.

These reforms are expected to enable retirement funds and pension accounts — representing a $40 trillion market — to allocate a fraction of their assets to Bitcoin. The report noted that even a 1% allocation could drive inflows worth $400 billion, with transformative effects on Bitcoin’s price.

Additionally, the report highlighted the role of sovereign wealth funds, such as Norway’s NBIM, which indirectly holds 7,000 BTC through its investment in MicroStrategy. The report also floated the possibility of a US strategic Bitcoin reserve fund, a move that could catalyze broader adoption by other global sovereign wealth funds.

Lower market volatility

Standard Chartered noted that the launch of Bitcoin ETF options in November has further reduced market volatility, a factor likely to attract more traditional finance players. The growing appeal of Bitcoin as a portfolio asset is reflected in metrics such as MicroStrategy’s market cap-to-Bitcoin holdings ratio, which has tripled this year, signaling excess demand.

Additionally, the potential for corporate treasuries and global investors to deepen their Bitcoin exposure has increased with the success experienced by companies like Japan’s Metaplanet and Germany’s Acurx Pharmaceuticals. Both firms have made recent Bitcoin investments, while Microsoft’s board is set to vote on a similar move this month.

While challenges remain, including the speed of regulatory implementation and broader adoption among conservative asset managers, Standard Chartered reaffirmed its confidence in Bitcoin’s upward trajectory.

According to the lender:

“Bitcoin’s limited market capitalization, relative to potential institutional demand, positions it uniquely for outsized growth.”

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