Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse and a respected analyst, forecasts a challenging September for Bitcoin, pointing to historical patterns and trends that suggest a downside trajectory for the world’s most valuable cryptocurrency.
As of the latest data, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $25,860. The cryptocurrency has been under pressure recently, following a remarkable 60% surge from its lows in November 2022. However, the market sentiment hit due to events like the collapse of FTX and the bankruptcy of several centralized finance (CeFi) lending platforms, including BlockFi. Consequently, Bitcoin retraced from its July 2023 peak of around $31,800.
August proved to be a turbulent month for Bitcoin, as bears erased all gains from July, resulting in a roughly 20% drop from July’s highs. An alarming decline on August 17 sent shockwaves throughout the market.
Cowen’s analysis highlights that Bitcoin experienced an 11.31% loss in August, slightly lower than the average of the past two pre-halving years, where the average return in that month was -11.71%. However, Cowen’s outlook for BTC in September appears even more pessimistic.
Citing historical data, Cowen noted that prices tend to contract in September before a Bitcoin halving event—the average return for September before the previous halving stood at -17.29%. Bitcoin could drop to $21,400 by the end of September if this historical trend holds.
However, considering the slightly “brighter” historical performance of Bitcoin in September during the last two halving cycles, which saw an average return of -5.66%, it suggests that BTC might end up around $24,400 by the end of this month. Even with this more optimistic assessment, it implies that Bitcoin could still experience further downward pressure in the coming weeks.
Despite the short-term challenges and price fluctuations, Bitcoin supporters remain bullish in the medium to long term. They are particularly hopeful that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will approve a spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF). Such approval could attract institutional investors, potentially boosting demand for BTC and contributing to its recovery.
Bitcoin remains in flux, with its price action closely monitored by market participants and investors eagerly awaiting regulatory decisions and broader market dynamics to determine its future trajectory.
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