Investment research boutique Fundstrat forecasts that the price of Bitcoin, currently hovering around $28,637, could experience a significant surge to over $150,000 by the end of 2024. This prediction hinges on the approval of several United States spot-Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which could reshape Bitcoin’s supply-demand dynamics.
In an interview on CNBC’s Squawk Box, Tom Lee, Managing Partner and Head of Research at Fundstrat, expressed his anticipation that a series of successful Bitcoin spot ETF applications could lead to substantial price appreciation for the cryptocurrency. He underlined that a U.S.-approved spot Bitcoin ETF could result in heightened demand outpacing the daily supply of Bitcoin, potentially driving the price to an astonishing $150,000, and possibly even reaching $180,000.
Lee emphasized that this prediction is contingent on the approval of U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs, as Europe already boasts such ETFs. The United States currently dominates the global trading volume for crypto-related ETFs at 97.7%, and this figure could potentially increase to 99.5% following the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs.
However, even if these ETF applications face rejection, Lee anticipates a price increase resulting from Bitcoin’s next halving event, anticipated in April 2024. Halving events lead to a reduction in Bitcoin supply, which historically has correlated with price appreciation. Yet, Lee cautioned that the price might not reach six figures in this scenario.
Prominent financial institutions, including Fidelity, Invesco, WisdomTree, and Valkyrie, have applied for Bitcoin spot ETFs with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), following BlackRock’s lead. While the outcome might not be known until 2024 due to the SEC’s review timeline, there’s a growing sense of optimism among analysts. Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart estimated a 65% likelihood of approval for these ETFs, notably higher than previous expectations.
While predictions for a $100,000 Bitcoin price have also surfaced, not everyone agrees on the timeline for such a milestone. Some, like Jesse Myer, co-founder of Bitcoin investment firm Onramp, believe that the market would need 12 to 18 months post-halving to fully price in the new reality. These diverging views reflect the complexities of forecasting in the dynamic cryptocurrency space.
In summary, Fundstrat’s prediction of a Bitcoin price surge to $150,000 by the end of 2024 relies on the approval of spot-Bitcoin ETFs in the United States. Whether driven by ETF approvals or Bitcoin’s halving event, these projections highlight the dynamic factors influencing the cryptocurrency’s future trajectory.
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