Bitcoin’s “Max-Pain” Zone Sits Between $73K and $84K, Analyst Says

Bitcoin may still have room to fall before finding a true cycle bottom, according to André Dragosch, European head of research at Bitwise.

Key Takeaways:

• Bitwise analyst André Dragosch says Bitcoin’s “max-pain” zone sits between $73K and $84K.
• Dragosch calls this range “fire sale” territory, warning it could mark a full cycle reset as traders debate where capitulation will hit.
• Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan argues the downturn is short-term noise and Bitcoin’s long-term value remains intact.

In a recent post on X, Dragosch said the market’s “max max pain” level likely sits between $84,000, the average cost basis of BlackRock’s IBIT ETF, and $73,000, the price at which Strategy acquired its most recent tranche of Bitcoin.

“Think max max pain is reached the moment we tag either the IBIT cost basis at 84k or MSTR cost basis at 73k,” Dragosch wrote, adding that the final bottom will “very likely” form somewhere in between.

Analyst Says Bitcoin Nearing ‘Fire Sale’ Reset Zone After Sharp Pullback

The analyst described these levels as “fire sale prices” that resemble a full market reset rather than routine volatility. His post quickly gained traction, drawing over 14,000 views.

The commentary arrives as traders debate where Bitcoin’s capitulation point may lie following its fall from the October peak near $125,000.

While some market observers argue that institutional exposure may prevent a deeper drawdown, others say the recent decline has yet to fully wash out leveraged positions.

One trader replied that major institutions “won’t allow” Bitcoin to fall far enough to inflict pain on their own clients, while another argued that sellers are already struggling to push the price lower, suggesting a rebound could develop quickly on any positive catalyst.

Dragosch’s analysis highlights how closely investors are watching the cost bases of major market players as sentiment weakens.

With Bitcoin hovering in a fragile zone, analysts say the $73K–$84K range could become a critical battleground for determining the next phase of the cycle.

As reported, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has urged investors to look past Bitcoin’s sharp pullback, arguing that the cryptocurrency’s long-term value has little to do with its recent slide and everything to do with the service it provides.

Hougan dismissed concerns about a deeper downturn, saying the current drop, roughly 27.5% from Bitcoin’s October all-time high, is “short-term noise.”

“In our increasingly digital age, with governments piling up more and more debt, I’m guessing a lot more people will want its service in the future,” Hougan concluded.

Bitcoin Faces Tight Range as Fed Cuts Grow Uncertain

Bitcoin may remain stuck between $60,000 and $80,000 through the end of December if the Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged at next month’s FOMC meeting, according to new analysis from XWIN Research Japan.

With rate-cut expectations collapsing from above 70% to as low as 40–50%, liquidity has drained from risk markets, driving Bitcoin below $90,000 and pressuring leveraged positions.

The December meeting is unusually opaque after the US government shutdown delayed two months of labor data, leaving policymakers with limited visibility.

Analysts say a cautious Fed, still facing inflation near 3%, would likely maintain tight conditions, which historically weigh heavily on equities and crypto.

If no cut arrives, XWIN expects the market to remain range-bound, with risk appetite muted until macro clarity returns.

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