Why Bitcoin Price Is Stuck at $100K — And What Could Push It to $150K

Key Takeaways:

• Bitcoin has limped sideways despite record inflows from institutional investors and ETFs.
• Vijay Boyapati thinks whales may be responsible for the price stagnation.
• Whales will eventually satisfy their desire to sell at $100,000, at which point the price will break out and hit the next “magic number”.

Bitcoin has limped sideways since crossing $100,000 for the first time in December, despite record inflows from institutional investors and exchange-traded funds. This paradox has stirred debate in crypto circles.

Now, Bitcoin proponent and author Vijay Boyapati thinks he knows why: whales — large, long-term holders, typically owning more than 1,000 BTC [~$109 million at current values]. His answer is as simple as it is controversial.

“The simple truth is [that] $100,000 was a magic number for a lot of long-time holders, who happen to hold a huge fraction of the total liquid supply of Bitcoin,” Boyapati, author of “The Bullish Case for Bitcoin”, posted on X.

“The selling from these whales is easily enough to match the demand from ETFs and Saylor, and could for some time [sic],” he added, referring to Michael Saylor, the CEO of Bitcoin-focused firm MicroStrategy.

In other words, even with institutional money pouring in, the Bitcoin price is being met, perhaps even capped, by whales who’ve waited a long time to see the $100,000 threshold, only to decide it was time to cash out.

Bitcoin broke above $100,000 for the first time in December. A few weeks later, it hit $106,000, a record at the time, spurred by the election of Donald Trump as U.S. President and the prospect of improved crypto regulation.

The cryptocurrency soon plunged to $75,000 in April following Trump’s import tariff war against major U.S. trading partners, including China. On May 22, BTC reached a record high of $111,000 as trade tensions eased and U.S. inflation softened.

Until then, it had struggled to break past $100,000, remaining range-bound.

Investors have expected catalysts, including regulatory updates and corporate treasury investments, to drive Bitcoin prices higher.

Since January, the number of Bitcoins held by public companies has climbed more than 30% to 819,374 BTC, valued at $89.7 billion, according to Bitcoin Treasuries. That’s about 4% of the total Bitcoin supply.

Meanwhile, total inflows into exchange-traded funds that track the BTC price surpassed $44.6 billion as of Jun. 9, per SoSoValue data. The ETFs, praised as a coming of age for Bitcoin, are the fastest-growing in history.

Bitcoin Monetization or Manipulation?

In his post, Boyapati rejected the idea that “paper Bitcoin” — derivatives that don’t involve direct BTC ownership — or whales as passive profit-takers or deliberate manipulators, were suppressing the price of Bitcoin.

Instead, he argues that the selling pressure from whales must be “celebrated” as a necessary redistribution of Bitcoin wealth from early proponents to new buyers, including institutional investors like BlackRock and Fidelity.

“The process of monetization involves the distribution of a new monetary good among the population,” Boyapati wrote. “This cannot happen without whales letting go of their long-held coins.”

Tracy Jin, chief operating officer at crypto exchange MEXC, said any asset that intends to evolve into a macro store of value must eventually broaden its ownership, telling Cryptonews:

“What is different this time is that the buyers stepping in are institutional investors with the capital and patience to hold longer-term. These dynamics represent the sign of a maturing market that adds depth, resilience, stability, and credibility to Bitcoin as a global financial asset.”

On-chain data shows that the $100,000–$110,000 range had “triggered increased profit-taking among long-term holders,” according to Matteo Greco, senior associate and analyst at Vancouver-based crypto services firm Fineqia.

Speaking to Cryptonews, Greco said, “Metrics such as realized profit by holding age show that recent selling pressure has largely been driven by these investors locking in gains.”

To make the point, he compared profits from long-term holders and short-term holders. Greco found that in the past 30 days, long-term holders had over $1 billion in realized profits compared to $350 million for short-term holders.

That’s almost three times as much profit for whales, he says.

“This suggests most of the recent selling stems from those who acquired Bitcoin at much lower prices and are now capitalizing on attractive levels.”

ETFs Conundrum

While exchange-traded funds have brought billions of dollars in new demand for the flagship cryptocurrency, Greco questioned whether the inflows are as bullish as they appear.

“It’s important to note that inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs do not necessarily represent fresh capital,” the Fineqia analyst said, adding:

“Institutional investors often employ delta-neutral strategies, buying spot ETF shares while hedging through derivatives such as options. This approach enables them to generate returns while maintaining a market-neutral stance.”

Bloomberg senior analyst Eric Balchunas believes that exchange-traded funds are not to blame for Bitcoin’s price stagnation.

“This is not ETFs doing, obviously because they buying like crazy lately (sic),” Balchunas wrote on X, in response to a recurring query on why record ETFs inflows had failed to spark a corresponding rally in BTC.

“It’s Bitcoin holders selling or leveraged flushers or whatever,” he averred. “Time and again exchange-traded funds go on flow-a-thons and its met with selling from other holders.”

What Comes Next for Bitcoin?

According to Boyapati, the Bitcoiner, whales will eventually satisfy their desire to sell at $100,000, at which point the price will break out and hit the next “magic number”. This number, say $120,000 or $150,000, will become the new resistance.

“Do not fret about the sideways grind,” he says. “Just know that under the hood the process of monetization of Bitcoin continues unabated.”

Boyapati’s assessment aligns with data from Glassnode, which shows that while some coins are on the move, “a significant portion of the early Bitcoin supply remains intact” – about two million BTC in total.

According to the data, the share of Bitcoin’s realized capitalization, or realized cap, held by coins aged over 10 years has declined from 0.045% to 0.033% over the past year. The steepest drawdown occurred between December and February, followed by a renewed decline since April 20.

Realized cap measures the value of all Bitcoin coins in circulation based on their price at the time they were last moved.

Glassnode says the data shows “that even decade-old holdings are being spent, and not all supply from that era is lost or vaulted.”

It said of the 3.4 million BTC not moved since 2010, around 1.4 million BTC is likely lost. The remainder — about 2 million BTC — is still held under deliberate custody by entities with strong conviction or long-term strategic intent.

Jin, the MEXC exchange COO, said Bitcoin’s long-term upside potential remains intact despite recent market volatility.

“The growing presence of ETFs, corporate treasuries, and sophisticated institutions adds a level of liquidity and durability to the market that previous retail-driven cycles lacked,” Jin told Cryptonews.

She is targeting a price of $150,000 by the fourth quarter of this year, but only “if macroeconomic conditions trend favorably and geopolitical uncertainty subsides.”

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